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Anthony Davis will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from a strained calf and Achilles tendinosis, but his absence will only compound an issue that already existed for the Lakers. They are taking nearly three fewer shots in the restricted area per game than a year ago, and opponents are shooting more than two percentage points higher than last season. They’ve slipped a bit on the offensive glass, they don’t hit the line as often and they don’t block as many shots. In short, they are, well, short. At least compared to last season, the Lakers are small and losing Davis only makes them smaller.
It’s not really a dealbreaker for the Lakers. This is the main advantage of having Anthony Davis in the first place. Most teams are small in the playoffs anyway, and Davis lets the Lakers do that without sacrificing much in terms of rim protection, rebounding, or inside scoring. But it slowly became a problem in the regular season. The Oklahoma City Thunder just pushed the Lakers into overtime twice in the same week by scoring 126 points in the paint in both games. Suffice it to say that there are much better great men in the NBA than Al Horford, and several are on the Lakers’ calendar.
The Lakers will face Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert in their next five games. They will follow this step with a brutal chain of All-Star-caliber guards who will have no trouble getting to the basket: Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox. The Lakers have so far managed to survive without Davis. Their 4-1 record in the games he missed helped them stay within 1.5 games of the Utah Jazz for the Western Conference seed.
But the schedule is about to get more difficult and the recovery of the top seed is particularly important this season. Home teams win about 80% of 7 games, and the thought of playing one in Salt Lake City, even with a healthy roster and significantly more playoff experience, would be intimidating under normal circumstances. Do it in a condensed season, perhaps after a grueling second-round war with the Clippers? It’s far from ideal, to say the least. The regular season won’t end without Davis, so the Lakers will be forced to try and catch up without their big superstar man.
The problem they are going to run into is that it will be extremely difficult to find a replacement for him, even in the short term. The Lakers technically have an empty roster spot, but at this point they can’t legally fill it. Signing Montrezl Harrell and Wes Matthews this offseason triggered a hard cap for the Lakers at the $ 138.9 million apron. They entered the season so close to that line that they had to wait for the prorated minimum wage to drop before they could sign another player. That won’t happen until February 24, which means the Lakers are still over a week away from signing a free agent unless they give up on the unsecured Quinn Cook.
An exchange is also unlikely. The hard cap issues remain, but there is also the corresponding salary component of any transaction that makes it difficult. The overwhelming majority of the Lakers roster is cheap. Only five players earn more than $ 3.7 million. LeBron James is untouchable. Just like Davis. The trio of Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell all play pivotal roles in the rotation. The Lakers just don’t have an easily transferable salary for a trade. Of the 14 players on their roster, 11 are active members of the rotation and not worth turning away for a quick jerk of mid-season relief. Jared Dudley is too important in the locker room to be dumped. That leaves Cook and Alfonzo McKinnie, both of whom earn a pittance and have little commercial value.
So what does all of this mean? Well, the help could come from a free agent signing in February, but more likely the Lakers will bide their time and assess Davis’ health. The deadline for trading is only March 25, and Davis is expected to be back on the pitch by then, barring a setback. If so, the Lakers can afford to be a bit more selective and seek out buyout targets that improve the roster as it currently exists.
What if he isn’t? Then the Lakers may have to be a little more aggressive. Waiting for the buyout market to fully kick in at the end of March would mean sacrificing a month of potential minutes on a February signing, but would likely mean adding a better player. The players available before the deadline are largely those who were not signed during the offseason. Eventually, veterans looking for new homes and trading fleets create a more robust market.
The Lakers are more likely to play this patiently. This is the leeway created by the employment of LeBron James. They may feel more comfortable with the idea of winning a Game 7 on the road than typical teams. They probably won’t feel particularly inclined to rush a move when a better one is available afterwards. This approach could reward them with better playoff training, but it could mean tough times ahead. The Lakers without Davis are one of the smaller teams in the NBA. The schedule has been lenient on the front lately. It won’t be for long.
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