Landslide polls cause anxiety: these geniuses saw Clinton as "unstoppable"

Democrats and Republicans are skeptical of early polls predicting overwhelming victory for Democratic party Joe BidenJoe BidenOn The Money: Pelosi does not plan to raise the debt ceiling before the conclusion of an agreement on spending ceilings | McConnell lobbies White House to reach budget deal | Warren's bill would wipe out billions of student debt | The Senate passes the IRS reform bill on money: Pelosi does not anticipate any increase in the debt ceiling before the conclusion of an agreement on spending ceilings | McConnell lobbies White House to reach budget deal | Warren's bill would wipe out billions of student debt | Senate Passes Hillicon Valley Reform Bill: Tim Cook Visits White House | Hearing of the House grappling with a serious threat | Bill and Melinda Gates launch a lobbying group | Tech turns to K-Street to fight antitrust | Prosecution represents major threat to T-Mobile / Sprint PLUS merger more than President TrumpDonald John TrumpNew York activists begin a hunger strike to advocate for the end of solitary confinement. Sanders says that he would inform the FBI of foreign intelligence offers. Sanders says that he would inform the FBI of foreign intelligence offers. the day of the elections 2020.

For Trump and the Republicans, the polls are false news and are no more reliable than the surveys that predict Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonDershowitz says that he could vote "with enthusiasm" for Biden instead of Trump Dershowitz says he could vote "enthusiastically" for Biden on behalf of Susan Trump's Democratic challenger, Susan Collins, announcing the Senate candidacy MORE would be elected president in 2016.

Some Democrats are also skeptical, warning their party not to buy the first data.

"These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable," said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster.

While Trump says polls underestimate his support, some Democrats say polls showing Biden well before the Democratic field do not deserve to be credible.

Both sides believe that a tight race is likely in 2020 and that polls showing Biden and other Democrats with huge leads probably do not reflect the reality of polling day.

"Anyone who thinks the Democratic candidate is heading for an overwhelming victory is doomed to repeat the tragic story of 2016," Kofinis said. "It is a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted from these polls as far back as general elections."

Doubts sparked by polls underscore how much confidence in the voting industry collapsed in 2016, when Trump's victory largely overshadowed the public.

This memory remains especially cool for Democrats, who are wary of anything that could lead to excessive faith in their party.

In recent days, Democrats have had good news polls.

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week revealed that Biden was leading Trump by 13 points, according to investigator Tim Malloy, saying the Democrat was "far ahead".

A national Morning Consult survey released shortly after the Quinnipiac survey confirmed it, finding both Biden and Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Government of Puerto Rico asks legislators to classify the "religious freedom" bill after Ricky Martin's criticism The Puerto Rican government has ordered legislators to classify the "religious liberty" bill after Sanders announced that he would inform the FBI about foreign intelligence offerings PLUS (I-Vt.) Driving Trump at two digits.

Most polls show that Trump is behind Biden by significant margins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Recent polls showing that Trump is on the run in Texas, Arizona and Iowa are even more alarming for three. He easily won in 2016. A recent poll of Quinnipiac University in Texas revealed that Biden led Trump between 48% and 44%, the other Democrats do not far behind.

"There is no way [Biden] I'm fighting in Texas, "Trump told ABC on Thursday at ABC's Good Morning America show. "My polls show that I win everywhere."

For Trump and the Republicans, polls are easy to dismiss. The president's chances of winning in 2016 have been severely curtailed by pollsters and pollsters, who have given him virtually no chance.

Trump's allies regularly refer to the New York Times election probability tool, which on polling day in 2016 had begun with a 92% probability of Clinton's victory, but had slowly evolved throughout the night.

Republicans are optimistic that the strength of the economy will lead Trump to a new victory in 2020. They say they will have a big head start with fundraising for general elections and unionization while Democrats progress in primary school.

These arguments resonate with some Democrats, who fear that their party may become complacent.

"The only thing we have to remember is that every poll allowed Hillary Clinton to win and then lose," said one of the top Democratic strategists. "I do not take any action in any poll, especially at this time. I think Trump starts in a strong position. Can he be beaten? Yes. But we will face a machine and a very organized force. Do not think anyone tells you that Joe Biden or a Democrat wins in Texas. It's crazy. Leave me alone."

But some Democrats say that all polls are too important to ignore.

"We are beyond the" grain of salt "phase in these polls," said one of the top Democratic pollsters. "These are not just small tracks for Biden against Trump. They are important and confirmed in key states. Although polls may move, they are relevant in that it shows Trump's weakness in being re-elected. He lost the key support he had at the end of 2016 and we can not deny it. "

Although Biden has been the Democratic favorite for some time, there is no guarantee that he will win the primary.

Some Democrats believe that Biden's lead in the polls is superficial and that he only benefits from the recognition of his universal name.

Sanders' campaign is angry, believing that the media are too eager to write his obituary by spinning the polls to try to pass the torch of progress to Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenThe Puerto Rican government orders legislators to classify the "religious freedom" bill after Ricky Martin's criticism. (D-Mass.), Who climbed in the polls.

"Obviously we know [Sanders’s] Younger voters have more strength, and these younger voters are often under-represented in these fixed polls, "said Faiz Shakir, Sanders campaign manager, Status Coup. "And if these polls do not take into account young people, or find different ways to reach them, then these, according to our own estimate, should be considered a bit suspicious."

In hindsight, the 2016 survey was not a complete failure.

The average national poll conducted by RealClearPolitics revealed that Clinton had a 3.3 percentage point advantage on polling day. Clinton won the national popular vote by more than 2 points but lost the electoral college.

The biggest electoral failures were recorded in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Pollsters and analysts say they should have paid more attention to Trump's enthusiasm and lack of enthusiasm for Clinton in these states.

And they say that Trump's voting power in neighboring states, such as Ohio and Iowa, should have been seen as a sign of his strength in the Rust and Midwest belt states that cemented his victory.

"This event where the experts have been blinded has already arrived, so now you have a precedent," said David Winston, a GOP pollster. "Could it happen again? Maybe, maybe not. But you must prepare for a surprising result as a real possibility here. "