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Annual inflation has increased considerably in the last month, from 2.3% in May to 2.8% in June. Usually this month, the price increase is very low (on average 0.2% over the last seven years), but this time the monthly inflation was the highest since 2008.
As always, the prices of individual goods and services increase The peak of the season in July begins to "soar" prices for clothing and footwear. In addition, fresh fruits and vegetables become cheaper.
More than two-thirds of monthly inflation was attributable to rising transportation costs; they were also "responsible" for nearly a third of annual inflation. So, if we close the fuel factor in June of this year, inflation was at a typical level this month.
In May, the price of gasoline in Rotterdam peaked in 2014, or € 647 per tonne. At June 20, it fell below 600 euros. At the end of June, the price fell again, but remained at the peak of May, when it fluctuates around 620 euros. Fluctuations in the small daily inventory at service stations are not visible; The effects of the May Stock Exchange have already been manifested
The annual inflation has increased significantly, having reached 2.8% in June, after a period of modesty of half a year, while she was about 2%. This figure can be obtained by rounding up the annual inflation rate in the remaining months of this year.
In July, annual inflation will continue to increase, probably more than 3%, and may decline in August, with seasonal deflation very low. 0.2%
The excise duty on tobacco products has increased in the middle of the year, while other reasons for the rise in inflation are not visible in the near future. Speaking of a future a little further away, even with favorable configurations and interactions of the global stock market curve, inflation reductions should not be significantly lower than current levels. The rate of wage growth varies considerably from one quarter to the next, but the general trend has accelerated since 2011.
Latvia experienced a lower inflation rate than of its Baltic neighbors, but it is unlikely that it lasts indefinitely. Meanwhile, service price inflation, which may be the first to report that rising labor costs are already being felt, is on track. In June, prices for services were 3.3% higher than those of a year ago. It is even below average this year, only 0.1 percentage point higher than the average of last year.
The hairstyle is a hormonal example of a type of service particularly illustrated by the situation on the job market. are small. Last year, their prices rose by 2.2%, but in May and June, they were 5.5%. Prices for hotels and restaurants, recreational and cultural activities may be particularly sensitive to salary increases, but they have increased only 2.7% and 0.1% over the course of the year.
The author is an economist at Luminor Bank
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