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According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, Latvia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 5.1% this quarter in the second quarter, after a rapid seasonal and non-calendar badessment. It's one of the highest growth rates of recent years.
Swedbank's chief economist, Lija Strašuna, points out that this rapid increase is due in part to more days of work than a year ago. Without this effect, growth is considerably more modest – 4.2%. In addition, the adjusted data indicate a slowdown in the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter of the previous year
The sharp increase in retail sales, according to L. Straszn, is mainly due to the effect of days working. "Household consumption is expected to continue to grow, with a sharp rise in wages." The mood of consumers in the second quarter was virtually as good as in the first quarter, and not just the time to stop is hot, but the job market continues to heat up, "says L. Strasuna L. Strašuna badumes that construction will continue to be the most dynamic industry in the coming quarters, which will be favored by the harmonious implementation of European fund projects.
Dainis Gašpuitis, macroeconomic expert of SEB banka, believes that the sector will continue to dominate. "The influx of funds and the favorable mood will ensure that, while increasing costs and financial problems (even serious) for builders who will auction items for quiet prices. Unfortunately, it's a paradox for this boom, "says D. Gasputi
Industrial growth slowed to 2%.
According to the expert SEB banka, he was affected by the dry weather that has reduced the production of electricity. "However, growth in manufacturing volumes is slowing down, which is being influenced by continued weakness in global economic conditions.It's a bit odd, but in the second quarter, there is a drop in activity in the manufacturing sector. He confirms that the market activation in the bus and the new fast failure will not be left out, "predicts D. Gasputi
. According to experts, bullshit will continue to dominate this year in the financial sector, which will slow down the overall performance of exports.Therefore, domestic consumption, due to the labor market situation, wage growth, will lead the economy forward. Currently, the strong performance of construction greatly increases global growth rates and offsets the performance of problem sectors.
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Lija Stresuna, eco Swedbank's main nomist:
– Over the next few quarters, the Latvian economy should be strong enough to cope with the decline in the activity of non-resident banks. With very good performance in the first half, economic growth should be more likely than the 3% expected in April this year. However, it is clear that the economic cycle is already ripe and that growth continues to slow down. Indeed, restrictions on local labor and capacity are becoming stricter and growth in Europe is beginning to slow down
Dainis Gašpuitis, macroeconomic expert of SEB banka: [19659003] – The growth rate will be lower in the third quarter. The decline is mainly forecast in grain exports and agriculture. Consumption will continue to drive growth, although the situation could be exacerbated and its growth slowed down. Overall, this year 's economy will be a success. At the same time, the issue of work will require more attention and quicker solutions because virtually all economies in the region are facing this problem. Last year, the economy grew by 4.5% and was similar in the first half. However, everything indicates that we are at the peak of growth. This year's growth forecast is 3.7%
Peter Strautiņš, Luminor economist:
– We can not say at the moment that growth is accelerating, or that the opposite is true. The economy is growing stronger, continuing to melt the ice crisis of the future negative expectation left by the great crisis in the minds of people, but it is unfolding slowly. All data needs to be examined in order to understand that popular ratings on the sustainable growth rate of potential or long-term GDP of about three percent are highly conditional. They have a very large circular logical dose or too deep conclusions based on past events. The population has declined in the past, but with economic growth, it can still accelerate, increasing the growth potential and so on. It is already known that in the first half of this year, employment growth has accelerated, despite rumors of labor shortages. It is also known that the net flow of pbadengers at one airport and three seaports in four quarters in the middle of the year has become positive for the first time since 2005, or that data availability has begun.
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