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S addressing the audience of entrepreneurs about the latest news, "in a crisis" questions are most often asked with concern, but in recent years too often. There are many who want something to happen, anyway, just stress Luminor the banking economist Pēteris Strautiņš.
"The situation of some companies is becoming critical, sometimes the threat does not seem to come from Latvia or emigration, but from the opportunity to work on the other side of the Estonian border, kind of daily commutes becoming widespread in the north of Vidzeme ", says Strautiņš, the latest Central Statistics Board data on wage developments in Latvia.
According to him, "there is no doubt that the struggle for employees is getting worse, that employers are forced to show more leniency in their demands, so that salary data may not give a complete picture of Rising costs As an executive of an industrial company, to whom I have the right to remain anonymous, recently said, "I have come back to times when I can not send a worker who is has come easily, for a while, not to mention the layoff. "Increasing productivity in these circumstances can be a daunting challenge – although income legalization is welcome, it is sometimes followed by a flurry of reporting forms. in companies, which also creates additional costs. "
"When the economy was suffering from a lack of total demand, pbading from a major crisis at around one to two years to a recent past (very free interpretation), a faster increase in consumption would have The current problem of unemployment, unresolved, is mainly due to the mismatch between economic activity and the placement of people.In the long term, the economy is able to compensate for the weakness relative exports through exports, population and capital specializing in servicing external demand A higher proportion of exports also means the specialization of an economy and greater opportunities for labor productivity growth "says the economist. He adds, "Wage growth is creating stress for businesses, but it is supporting an increase in savings, which is helping to replace the ever-increasing capital of the labor force." a country that can not really cope with macroeconomic stability, the market will eventually overthrow it.The question is simply how long does it take and the price of this process in a broad sense, including social and demographic. "
In turn Swedbank The chief economist, Agnese Buceniece, said: "Although the average increase in wages can still be described as fast, it seems to have begun to slow down slowly .The reasons for seeing it are difficult, given that the economy continues to grow rapidly and that, for the moment, there is every indication that the labor shortage is still evident.If we envisage a prospect of sustainable economic growth and international competitiveness, a more reasonable wage increase It is even advisable, that for companies to be able to offer their employees a long-term wage increase, wage growth must go hand in hand with productivity growth, and lately this tandem is a bit jovial. increase more quickly. "
According to her, it is generally expected that the average salary before tax increases by less than 9% this year. In turn, next year, with the disappearance of the effect of the increase in the minimum wage, the average salary will increase by about 7%, which is still quite fast.
Meanwhile, the bank Citadel Economist Mārtiņš Āboliņš points out that "the sharp increase in wages is currently linked to the generally favorable economic situation, the ever-high income gap with Western Europe, the dwindling population in Europe. working age and one of the lowest unemployment rates of the past 30 years, as well as the changing structure of the economy.In the past three years, the The highly-paid IT sector has created about one-third of all new jobs in Latvia, although the sector accounts for only about 3% of the economy. "
"These factors suggest that wage growth in Latvia will not change in the near future, although next year's growth rates will be slightly lower than this year, as there is no expected increase in the minimum wage and that economic growth should also be slower.The situation on the labor market is changing rapidly nowadays and when there is a shortage of jobs since the recovery independence in Latvia, it will turn into a labor shortage in the short term and demographic projections suggest that this situation will not change in the next ten years. the average salary in Latvia could increase by 7.5% and is expected to exceed 1 100 euros by 2019, "said the expert.
He adds that this is good news for the workers and that it will boost domestic consumption, but wage growth continues to outpace productivity gains and entrepreneurs' ability to earn money. . This implies a gradual increase in domestic service prices, while firms and exporting industries face a major challenge in maintaining their competitiveness. For economic models whose competitive advantage lies in low wages, the expected wage growth could prove to be unjustified in the years to come. Therefore, unless unforeseen global shocks, the job market will be the biggest challenge of the Latvian economy in the coming years.
"The current wage increase is sufficient to reach the average income level of Europe in about 15 years.At the same time, the question can we be able to contain it? Latvia is currently very low, investments in research and development represent well under 1% of GDP and, in terms of the quality of education, we are only about at the average level of the countries of the Such an economic model will probably not be enough to maintain the current rate of wage growth without provoking a new crisis, "the economist adds.
BNN has already reported that in the 3rd quarter of this year, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2017, gross monthly gross salary increased by 8.0%, or 75 euros, to reach 1,006 euros for a work in time full, according to the latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. .
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