US Federal Meeting and possible scenarios.



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The US Federal Reserve, which began Wednesday and ends Thursday (18:00 GMT), closed its press conference with the closing of the press conference of its president, Jerome Powell (18:30 GMT).
Estimates of inflation and growth by Fed members will not be released at this meeting, but at the September meeting.
European stock markets fell sharply on Wednesday with initially negative results, then Donald Trump's tweets released Wednesday afternoon and new worries about global trade.
The euro has remained relatively stable in the expectation of the results of the Fed meeting.
US inflation figures rose 1.4% and remained far from the 2% target set by the Fed.

What about the Fed meeting?

Three scenarios:
That participants reduce the interest rate by 50 percentage points. This is the least likely and most likely scenario for President Trump's mood, but the fact that the dollar is violently damaged and that the least vivid reaction is the first. Inventories will inevitably learn.

The fact that participants reduce the interest rate by 25 percentage points with the announcement of a sustainable reduction cycle began with this decision. It's also an unlikely scenario, but if that happens, it will of course have a negative impact on the dollar, which will go down without collapsing.

That participants reduce the interest rate by 25 percentage points and explicitly state or insinuate that this step is orphaned and that it has been used as a precautionary measure, while continuing to monitor the data and to prepare to work according to the evolution of the situation. In this case, the dollar will face little pressure and may be in a hurry to buy it too.

But is the Fed hesitating to reduce its rates?

Of course, it is impossible to confirm the impossibility of doing so, even if the majority of opinions exclude the occurrence of this case. But such a surprise and the postponement of the decision at the meeting in September will have a very positive impact on the dollar and in this case, the euro will lose without hesitation the 1.1100. The pound sterling will also be under pressure as a rough currency. The yen and the Swiss franc could benefit from this event against the dollar.

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