[ad_1]
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Growing signs of an economic slowdown and the intensification of the US-China trade war have slowed growth in global oil demand at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis of 2008, announced Friday the International Energy Agency.
"The situation is becoming increasingly blurred," said the IEA in its monthly report. "The growth in global oil demand has been very slow in the first half of 2019."
Compared with the same month of 2018, global demand fell by 160,000 barrels per day in May, which represents a second drop in 2019 compared to the previous year, the Paris-based agency announced .
From January to May, demand for oil rose by 520,000 barrels a day, the smallest increase since 2008.
"The prospects for a political agreement between China and the United States on trade have deteriorated," said the agency. "This could result in a contraction in economic activity and a decline in the growth of oil demand."
The agency lowered its global demand growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 to 1.1 million barrels per day and 1.3 million barrels per day, noting that China was the only major source of growth in the world. 500,000 barrels a day in the first half of this year.
In the United States and India, demand growth was only 100,000 barrels per day for the January to June period, he added. "The outlook is fragile and the likelihood of a downward revision is greater than a revision," the report says.
Supply constraints imposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have led to a scarcity of the market and are favored by a slowdown in non-OPEC production.
The IEA, however, said the balance would be temporary, as it forecasts strong growth in non-OPEC production in 2020 of 2.2 million bpd and expects the global oil market to have "good supplies".
According to the International Energy Agency, economic concerns dominate geopolitical factors, but the oil market still closely follows tensions between the United States and Iran in the Gulf.
US sanctions against Iran resulted in a drop in Tehran's crude oil exports of 130,000 b / d in July to 400,000 b / d, the lowest level since the 1980s.
The Russian Ministry of Energy said yesterday that Moscow had taken into account the possibility of a slowdown in oil demand by extending its global production agreement with OPEC early this year.
She stated that the IEA's estimates were largely consistent with the department's forecasts. "We have taken into account the possibility that growth in oil demand will slow down to the indicated levels (by the IEA) or even more," the ministry said.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose yesterday, supported by expectations of further cuts in OPEC production, despite the IEA report.
At around 17:00 GMT, Brent crude futures rose over 2%, from about $ 1.18 to $ 58.55 a barrel. WTI (West West Texas Intermediate) crude increased 3.55% from $ 1.89 to $ 54.46 per barrel.
Oil prices fell more than 20% from the peaks reached in April. In July, OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, an alliance known as OPEC +, agreed to extend reductions in oil production until March 2020 in the aim to boost crude prices.
In response, a Saudi oil official told Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest crude oil producer, that it intended to maintain its crude oil exports at less than 7 million barrels per day in August and September, to rebalance the market and contribute. By reducing global oil stocks. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei also said that the United Arab Emirates will continue to support measures to balance the oil market.
Source link
