Fragile reconciliation leads the political game

Paula Ostih writes in Asharq Al-Awsat:

Lebanon's recent history is full of reconciliations between political forces, many of which have not lasted, for being built on unsustainable foundations and in the immediate interest of parties and leaders. Since 2005, Lebanon has experienced many political understandings and reconciliations, some of which are described as "historical". Many events, some of which have a bloody nature, lead to compromises opening the way for the convergence of conflicting political forces.

Sources close to Hezbollah's position confirm that the recent reconciliation in Baabda did not take place at the expense of the March 8 forces, but that of Jumblatt, who sought to end the judicial process, appointing Asharq Al-Awsat . Mouna Fayyad, professor of psychology at the Lebanese University of Beirut, said: "Recently, the right party in Lebanon was referring to (It is Hezbollah and its allies who impose its will and agenda in all the compromises, but what has happened recently is that Jumblatt resisted, and under pressure Washington intervened to support him, creating the kind of balance that was lacking in the past. "

Fayyad said in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that "the country had two options: to collapse or proceed to a new settlement that would save the face of Jumblatt's opponents, but it is probably similar to the other compromises that were consolidating their victory and conceded the components (March 14). "

The last reconciliation that preceded Jumblatt-Arslan's reconciliation in Baabda was the reconciliation of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh in November 2018, sponsored by Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros. al-Ra & # 39; i. The two Christian leaders, who have always been the worst enemies because of the bloody events of the war, have decided to converge to reach their time, defending a national and Christian interest, and turning the page of the past, while their opponents placed this convergence in the battle to confront the "Free Patriotic Movement", and prevented them from interfering with the Christian scene.

The reconciliation between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Future Movement in 2016, which paved the way for the presidential settlement that led to the arrival of General Michel Aoun as President, is one of the most important reconciliations and agreements. who continue to govern political life in Lebanon. The Free Patriotic Movement, which has always blamed the future for the difficult financial situation of Lebanon, turned this page, while Hariri preferred to point out that it is part of the "Pact" and is therefore responsible for its success.

The reconciliation between Aoun and Geagea in 2016 was also a historic event, with the two men waging a fierce war in 1990 that claimed the lives of several hundred people and ended in his death. The rapprochement of Aoun-Qawati was not limited to reconciliation: the same year, the two sides signed a political agreement on which Geagea built Aoun's candidacy for president. However, this agreement fell after the two parties opposed the translation of the rest of its terms, after the refusal of the "free patriotic" to share the Christian ministerial seats on par with the "forces". Perhaps the most striking badet of this reconciliation is that which has enabled Aoun to badume his presidency, while guaranteeing Geagea solid ground, to require after four years of succession to Aoun.

Unlike the reconciliation of the Free Patriotic Forces, which now seems more fragile than ever, despite the parties' declarations of adherence, the FPM's agreement with Hezbollah has continued since 2006. This agreement allowed Hezbollah to obtain wide Christian coverage, both in Lebanon and in the international community, while the accession of General Aoun to the presidency allowed the party to stick to his candidacy for two and a half years.

Druze, the relationship between Druze components has not stabilized in recent years. Jumblatt and Arslan, who had agreed to neutralize their own arena of internal and regional conflicts, were quick to adhere to the conflict-bridging policy, which led to an explosion of conflicts between them in the context of conflict. Qabrishmon incident. After the Rams were separated between Arslan and the leader of the Arab Unity Party, Wiam Wahhab, in the last legislative elections, the two men finally returned to face Jumblatt.