Expected warned on the Gulf markets .. Learn the reasons



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From: Mahmoud Jamal

DUBAI (Reuters) – Dubai's stock markets on Monday posted a more cautious performance, which tends to complete the downturn due to profit-taking and a technical correction of some indicators, coinciding with growing geopolitical tensions and a recovery. of the trade war, badysts said.

At the end of Sunday's session, the Gulf stock markets recorded a negative performance, with the exception of the Muscat market, which broke the general trend of regional stock markets.

The geopolitical events in the region have been the scene of a new event, according to press reports, according to which Iranian naval forces have reportedly stopped a foreign vessel in Gulf waters carrying 700,000 liters of fuel carrying seven sailors on board. This is the third incident of its kind in the Gulf waters caused by "Tehran".

In terms of trade war, and in a surprise statement by US President Donald Trump, who said Thursday in a tweet on his official Twitter account that he would impose an additional $ 10 tariff on Chinese goods. $ 300 billion starting Sept. 1, Talks to ease tensions between the world's two largest economies continue.

Reasons to land

The Executive Director of the Global Consultancy & Training Consultancy Company told Mubasher that the slowdown in the Gulf market was due to five main reasons, the first being the escalation and news news regarding Iran's detention of A tanker.

Ali Al Enezi added that the lack of clarity of the event, its impact and its implications have strongly affected the psychology of investors, which has led them to prefer the temporary sale, especially as the main ones Market indicators have begun the technical correction stage due.

He pointed out that Dubai's financial market declines, which posted consecutive weekly gains for the fifth time in a row last week, are attributable to profit-taking and correction after all these gains had to be made and unloaded. profits.

The Dubai financial market fell Sunday, the largest daily decline in 3 months, continuing its second consecutive decline, affected by the decline in real estate and investment, in a context of declining rates negotiation.

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He attributed the current slowdowns in the Saudi market to the psychology of investors affected by the unexpected results revealed by leading companies at the end of the first half of this year.

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), the largest Saudi-owned company listed in Tadawul, reported a profit of 5.5 billion riyals ($ 1.4 billion) at the end of the first half of 2019, an increase of 55 percent than the $ 12.2 billion ($ 3.2 billion) achieved in the same period in 2018.

Al-Anzi pointed out that declines in other markets in the region also stemmed from the outbreak of the trade war and the US President's attempt to impose new tariffs on new Chinese products in the region. the setting for a new escalation of the war, which lasted about a year.

He pointed out that one of the reasons for the decline in the region's markets to tighten the tone of the "Fed" last week after the announcement of the first reduction in more than ten years has confirmed that this step did not mean the approach of quantitative easing and motivation.

On Wednesday, in a landmark decision, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but pointed out that this decision may not be the beginning of a long-term monetary easing trend, according to the official statements of the head of the US central bank.

Al-Enezi pointed out that the downturn in world markets last weekend had prompted investors to be more cautious and not to make positive news until market trends and factors who influence them, including oil and US stocks.

At the end of Friday's session, global markets suffered heavy losses in business results and the escalation of the trade war.

Al-Enezi hypothesized that the Gulf markets would return after Eid's holiday, which was characterized by previous quiet and calm sessions, where most of the time tended to conserve cash until the return of the exit, with the announcement of new medium-term companies and therefore the return of the positive.

Bin Laden and the restructuring

Mubasher explained that the reasons for the decline of the Saudi market yesterday and the instability of the week are due to several reasons, including information on the leadership of the Saudi group Bin Laden to mandate a financial adviser to restructure its debt, estimated at $ 300 million.

The shares of the banks were the most affected by the news yesterday and are expected to record further declines as the sector is one of the biggest explorers of this group's investments.

By the end of yesterday's trading, the NCB had lost 2.9% and Al Rajhi Bank, Saudi Arabia's largest Islamic bank, had lost 1%. Riyad Bank dropped by 2.5% and Saudi British Bank by 3.2%.

And should continue to be cautious at Monday's meeting, especially with investors watching the US and oil market trends and whether they will continue to fall or not.

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Climbing control

Economic adviser Ibrahim Al-Failakawi told Mubasher that investors are watching the consequences of the China-China trade war, the recent events in Iran, the escalation in the Gulf waters and its impact on the economies of China. the region as well as other external factors affecting all the stock markets of the world.

He expected that the market would not respond clearly to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates, which would not likely have a significant effect on short-term market performance, a natural consequence. holidays before the year of Eid.

He said that what happened before the last sessions before this holiday would be cyclical liquidity and that the main portfolios would only turn around 25% of the liquidity of the Gulf markets.

Volatility and fainting

The vice president of the investment research department at KAMCO told Mubasher: during the next sessions and before the holidays of Eid, the market will witness fluctuations and holidays, with the completion from the summer vacation period.

Raed Diab confirmed that investors in the markets were controlled by the state of anticipation of new business announcements regarding the financial results of the first half of this year, which would have a significant impact on morale.

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