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OPEC today presented pessimistic forecasts for the oil market for the remainder of 2019 as economic growth slowed and highlighted the challenges of 2020 as rival producers pumped more oil. gross, justifying the maintenance of an OPEC-led agreement to reduce supplies.
In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast of growth in oil demand in 2019 from 40,000 b / d to 1.10 million b / d. She stressed that the market would record a small surplus in 2020.
Pessimistic forecasts of a slowdown in the economy as part of a trade dispute between the United States and China and the separation of Britain from the European Union could help OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to maintain their production cuts to boost prices. Indeed, a Saudi official has alluded to new measures to support the market.
"If the outlook for fundamentals is rather pessimistic for the rest of the year, given weak economic growth, current global trade problems and slowing oil demand, it is important to monitor closely balance the supply and demand and support the stability of the market over the next few months, "says OPEC. "
OPEC rarely announces a pessimistic view of market expectations and gains made by oil after the release of the report and negotiated at less than $ 59 per barrel.
Despite the cuts made by OPEC, oil has fallen from its peak of more than 75 dollars reached in April 2019 under pressure from trade concerns and the economic downturn.
OPEC maintained its forecast of oil demand growth in 2020 at 1.14 million bpd, a slight increase over this year. However, the OECD said its outlook for 2020 of economic growth was facing downside risks.
"The risks of global economic growth remain bearish," the report says. "Trade-related developments in particular should be the subject of a thorough review in the coming weeks, with the possibility of a further downward revision in September".
OPEC lowered its global economic growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.1% and maintained its forecast for 2020 at 3.2% for now.
The report also indicates that oil inventories in developed countries rose in June, indicating a trend that could bolster OPEC concerns over a possible oversupply of oil.
Inventories in June exceeded the average of the last five years, an index close to that followed by the OPEC, of 67 million barrels.
This comes despite OPEC + production cuts and an additional unwanted production loss from Iran and Venezuela, two OPEC members subject to US sanctions.
The report shows that "the OPEC" reinforced the cuts in July. According to data compiled by OPEC from secondary sources, the output of the 14 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased by 246,000 barrels per day compared with June, to settle at 29.61 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia having accelerated the reduction of its supplies.
OPEC said demand for its oil would average 29.41 million bpd next year, down 1.3 million bpd from this year. But it has raised expectations for 2020 by 140,000 barrels a day compared to last month's expectations.
The report says that there will be a supply surplus of 200,000 barrels a day by 2020 if OPEC continues to pump oil at the rate recorded in July and that the rest of the factors remain the same. Last month's report indicated a larger surplus of more than 500,000 barrels a day.
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