Sub-images of the elections: the battle is settled … but!

With the signing by President Michel Aoun of the decree inviting elected bodies to elect a deputy to the Shiite siege in the smaller constituency of Tire, which was released after the resignation of MP Nawaf al-Moussawi on September 15, it is possible to say that the interested ones managed their electoral machines, of the anticipated battle.

Although the under-elections are conducted according to the majority system, which means that their outcome is almost predetermined in relation to the results obtained with the previous electoral rights and given the persistent alliance between Hezbollah and Amal, the battle is also settled, led by bilateral Shiite opponents, even to record the situation.

Although Hezbollah leaders did not announce the identity of the candidate in which the battle would be held so far, and if some names were published, perhaps in the form of a "pulse", some are releasing question the position of Amal, who does not seem to be interested in merit. Anyone who talks about the desire of some of his rules to register a different position, even refusing to participate …

Not for cheering ?!

In principle, it may be the best choice for everyone in sub-picture elections, for several reasons and considerations; firstly, avoiding an electoral battle may not be a timely one, given the many crises the country faces, especially since these elections seem to be taking place for many and their results are known in advance, whatever the name and affiliation of the candidates.

But apart from all these considerations, it is clear that there is an implicit consensus between all actors to impose the battle and that at the head of these "Hezbollah", of course, who does not find it dangerous to fight , could turn them into a new "referendum". Would serve him in the face of the challenges that beset him. Therefore, the party believes that it is in its interest to re-examine its popular power, in response to the international sanctions imposed on it, and tries to isolate it, as was the case recently after the United States imposed sanctions on two of its representatives in parliament and urged the government not to treat them.

If the elections serve Hezbollah in this respect, by refuting all the rumors of confrontation with a popular crisis in its nascent environment, its opponents, in turn, have no interest in recognizing the outcome of the battle at the time. 39, advance and turn to sponsorship, although there is more than one point of view. Their ranks, including one of the most prominent opponents of the party and the permanent candidate of the circle Zahrani Riyad al-Assaad, refuse to mature for lack of elements of the battle for him. However, the indicators suggest that the other point of view, which hides behind a number of independents, as well as the "communist" party, who want the battle and even record the situation is none other than the desire to stabilize their presence in the south, "he said.

"Hope" is not interested ?!

In general, everyone agrees that the battle of the subsidiary Tire, if it occurs, will not be more formal and that this victory will be the ally of the Hezbollah candidate, whatever the circumstances and details of the law, which take place somewhere like the Tripoli elections. In which all the powerful forces, as well as the candidate of the Future Movement, the deputy Dima Jamali, were defeated and were defeated by the weak and weak vote of the day.

However, far from the outcome of the elections, which everyone knows it will not be surprising, especially as Hezbollah will not be able to mobilize its mbades and push them to the polls Attention is focused on the position of the Amal movement since the battle, whether near or far, although it is almost certain that it will not hesitate officially to announce its support to the candidate of the Hezbollah ", according to the historic electoral agreement reached between the two parties on the division of seats in parliament, which had worked in the last elections last year.

However, if the movement is officially attached to this agreement, without any possible discussion, in light of the insistence of its leaders to maintain the "close" alliance with the party, there are those who speak, in their rules in particular, that the law will be an opportunity to rehabilitate themselves, after the "imbalance" The recent elections in the constituency of Tire, long considered a bastion of "hope", have been postponed, the outgoing deputy of Hezbollah, Nawaf al-Moussawi, top of the list, in front of the candidates of the movement. Therefore, the movement is seriously discussing the intention of the bases to abstain, on the pretext that there is no real fight and that it is therefore not necessary to transfer the electoral mechanism to Amal, as long as the fight is not his battle.

Perhaps this "hypothesis" reinforces the impression that the relationship between Hezbollah supporters and the Amal movement is not at its best at this time, given the recent "contrast" between both parties, both in the context of the orchard incident In which the party stood clearly before the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, while President Nabih Berri clearly supported him, or in the context of the Alliance going on between the party and the free patriotic movement. The movement is still not in a position to commit to it, despite all the attempts that have been made and are under way, the last of which was the drafting of a memorandum of understanding. Yen sides.

Do you feel an impulse ?!

The secondary legislative elections in Tire, if any, will not be an opportunity to take the pulse of the continuation of the popular Hezbollah nursery in the south, nor to the constitution of a qualitative breach by its opponents, which is still excluded until further notice. , of what genre.

However, these elections could be somewhere, an opportunity to get an idea of ​​the reality of relations between Hezbollah and the Amal movement in the light of the "cold wars" between their two public bases, which are now made public through social media. Its causes are sometimes clear and the two leaders disavowed them.

What is certain, among all this, is that such elections, apart from some details and marginal messages, will not change anything in the equation at all levels, a formula adopted by both Hezbollah and Amal, even the latest …