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Various political forces came to the conclusion that the Kibrishmon incident file could not be referred to the Council of Justice. This prompted President Saad Hariri to express his dissatisfaction with the persistent and deliberate obstruction of the work of the government.
The solutions and hardening of Hariri
Hariri gave way to communication, seeking compromises leading to the healing of the Council of Ministers, without putting the record of the Justice Council on its agenda, without even removing it from the program. At first, the question was: Where is the meeting convened by Hariri, whether at Baabda Palace or in ministries? He would prefer to reach a consensus that avoids any explosion or disagreement from his government and refuses to vote the referral of the file, because it leads to a vertical split of the government, which could disrupt his meetings for a long time.
Hariri was found in a state of siege imposed by obliging him to fix the agenda, which led him to affirm that fix the agenda of the meetings of the Council of Ministers was within his authority and that he would not accept that a party imposed a condition on him despite his adherence to the consensus. When he was offered a government hearing without including in his agenda the point of referral to the Judicial Council, in exchange for putting him to the vote from outside the context, he announced that he would leave the meeting because he would not allow it.
The vote, according to the belief of Hariri and other political forces, is indisputable, if the case were to be returned to al-Adli, and if it is not approved. Hariri does not want a party to separate Like others, he knows that the result of the vote has been decided so far, 15 with the dismissal and 15 against, which means his surrender, which represents a blow to the President of the Republic. Even if there were variables in the vote, and approved the dismissal, Hariri would not accept Walid Jumblatt's break. Such a decision will not be easy to make, especially since it reacts violently on the part of the socialist.
Spiral and machineries
Preserving the government is what Hariri wants and the meeting with Aoun, Hezbollah and various political forces in the first place. While Aoun and Hezbollah support the Justice Council, the stability, tranquility and preservation of government is a priority for all armed forces to advance all other positions. Hezbollah does not want to break up its ally (Arslan) nor abandon it, but knows that it is unable to achieve what it wants. Aoun insisted on choosing the Judicial Council, thinking with Erslan that the time had come to hit Walid Jumblatt with a fatal blow, as he was in his weakest political moments, and must be completely curled up. This is approved neither by the party nor by Hariri. They know that Jumblatt does not lose his cards. His answer will certainly be ready. Nobody can foresee the consequences. The situation in the country and the external pressures do not allow such an adventure to undermine the stability, after Jumblatt succeeded in re-sorting the country.
There too, I began to be convinced that the logic of the fracture would not produce the desired results. The president, who does not want to give up his ally Talal Arslan, is also part of his mandate and the government. This led Hariri to say that he wanted to convene a meeting of the Council of Ministers and would inform the president that he would not follow the choice of the Judicial Council and that he must find a way out. Prime Minister Nabih Berri met Hariri, who was surprised by the disruption of meetings and the inability to summon the government to a meeting. This prompted Arslan to travel to Ain al-Tinah, maintaining his position. But Berri was clear: the withdrawal of the government from this attraction and the need to meet, not to take it hostage on this issue, to be treated separately.
Jumblat goes up
The position of Arslan, who adheres to his demands, is facing a new intensity against Jumblatt: he considers that what happened in Qabrishmoun is the result of previous provocations and military symptoms. He mentioned the Shuwaifat incident and called for the merger of the two cases so that the competent authorities can determine if it is necessary to send them together before the Judicial Council. Jumblatt's position means that the man resorted to a climbing tone, since he had previously agreed to separate the two files. But after the attack, he found that the most appropriate way to defend himself was the attack.
Is Hariri initiated?
In the midst of the case's turnover in a vicious circle, Hariri remained insistent: call the government to a meeting that it could conduct next week, even if the other party does not attend not at the meeting. But in this he may have thrown the ball home and taken responsibility for the disturbance.
But other sources consider this conversation with the media only. The planned call will be a sham, especially since Hariri fears the presence of all and the imposition of a vote. Any errors in the calculations or any change in pressure may lead Ministers of Hope to refrain.The result is 15 to 12, with 3 abstentions, which opens the issue in an endless debate on the opportunity to approve or reject the referral. An imperfect decision can be taken to pbad the referral decision, and the country will enter a dangerous corner.
Arslan demands and negotiates
In exchange for finding an outcome that satisfies the various forces, it seems that Erslan may be preparing to open a bargaining market in which he could give up his commitment to the Justice Council. There are those who talk about the man who draws up a list of applications, starting with the appointments and does not end with some "parliamentary" guarantees that are carried forward to a later period. Including a parliamentary seat in Hasbaya or a parliamentary seat in Beirut. This is in addition to some functional gains in the state.
tags
Saad Hariri
Explosion
Walid Jumblatt
Hezbollah
Nabih Berri
Beirut
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