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On the one hand, Los Angeles Lakers' loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night was not the most surprising thing. After all, the Bucks – who ran late to win in Los Angeles – hold the best NBA record and have a MVP lead candidate at Giannis Antetokounmpo.
On the other hand, the Lakers who lost 15-2 – and the lead – in the last three minutes of play may have put the back of the team in a totally new way.
With the defeat, LeBron James and the Lakers find themselves facing a probability of only 14 percent of the series in the NBA's FiveThirtyEight projection model, their lowest score of the season and a damning scenario given that there are only 20 games left in the campaign. . This figure of 14% represents a huge setback compared to last week, when the club had a 25% chance of being accepted. (Three weeks ago, the number of Lakers was 41%.)
But a number of realities are settling in now. The Lakers are 4 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers for the seventh seed and 3.5 behind the San Antonio Spurs, who have the tiebreaker (which means their lead is rather 4 games because the Lakers would miss the post-season attack if they finished with the same record as San Antonio). The most discouraging thing, aside from the time lost, is perhaps the fact that the other teams competing for the last two places have much easier remaining schedules.
We expect an average of 44 wins to qualify in the Western Conference playoffs. In order to reach this total of victories, the Lakers should finish 14-6 against the toughest tenth schedule in the NBA – a schedule including 10 home games and 10 road games. They still have to play with the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Bucks, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder, among others.
In contrast, the indestructible Spurs only need 10-9 to finish with 44 wins. They have a slate easier than average for the rest of the way, with 11 of their last 19 games in San Antonio. The Clippers have even better, needing a 9-9 finish to get 44 wins, with 12 of their last 18 home games. (The young and fun-filled Kings of Sacramento are in pretty much the same place as the Lakers in the standings, needing a 13-7 finish to win 44. But their remaining schedule is the third-easiest in the NBA, which gives them a little hope, a difficult battle.)
James had to face pressure at the end of the season to get his team out of the doldrums of each of the last seasons. But this scenario with the Lakers stands out, both because of the time he missed due to an injury (a match that now seems to cost a playoff spot to the team), and difficulty with which the young cast held the rope during his absence, going 6-11. It's one thing to get into the playoffs, as James and Cleveland's clubs often do. But James himself has not missed the playoffs for 14 years, not since the 2004-05 season.
If there is a good side, it is that the Lakers finally look committed. Antetokounmpo only had 16 points, one of his best results in the dominant season. Young Brandon Ingram recently showed his ability to score goals and was unstoppable on Friday, finishing with 31 points.
But the time to celebrate the moral victories of this team is unfortunately exhausted. A sixth consecutive season to miss the playoffs – especially now, after the addition of one of the greatest players in the league – would be disastrous. And after the defeat on Friday, the Lakers are considering this possibility.
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