The near future of Earth can be similar to the apocalypse?

According to an international team of scientists, the global warming temperature can be twice as high as climate models have shown up to here. They also argue that the sea level can then reach six meters or more, and this scenario is very likely even if the Paris Agreement is respected.

Nature Geoscience's published research data was based on the three hottest periods of 3.5 million years ago. year and when the global temperature was 0.5 to 2 degrees higher than that of the pre-industrial period (19th century AD).

Scientists have used various measurements to group the effects of past climate change together to examine what is happening with a warmed planet, even when the climate is stabilizing.

that long – term warming of one or two degrees has drastically reduced the ice sheet layers of Greenland and Antarctica, while the sea level has increased by at least six meters, a few meters more than current climate models.

"Meanwhile, temperatures were much higher than expected in our models and the sea level was much higher," says Katrina Meissner, researcher at the New Climate Change Research Center in South Wales.

She said that today it would affect huge populations of urbanized sites around the world, and that all Pacific countries would be submerged. "Two degrees may not seem so bad when you see them written on a piece of paper, but the consequences are bad – the ecosystems are changing dramatically."

Meissner argued that climate models that focused on the near future did not sufficiently badess possible changes, even with temperature increasing to 2 degrees. "Climate models seem reliable when they evaluate minor changes, such as short-term low emission scenarios, in the coming decades up to 2100 years," she said. – But when the change becomes longer or longer … it seems that they have not correctly badessed climate change [pasėkmių]. "

An international team of researchers from 17 different countries studied three warm periods: the highest peak of the Holocene, 5,000-9,000 years ago, the last Tarpledin period that preceded 116,000-129,000 years ago and the Middle East hot Pliocene 3 million – 3.3 million years ago.

During the first two periods explored, climate change was caused by changes in the Earth's orbit. In the middle of the Pliocene period, global warming was the result of an increase in carbon dioxide levels, which, incidentally, was the same as today.

In each case, the planet is much slower than it is now. "Studies of recent warming have shown that several mechanisms of poorly reflected reinforcement in climate models alter the long-term prediction of these models and increase long-term warming and its effects," says one of the researchers in the study. University of Bern. "This means that carbon dioxide can be much lower than estimated and, in practice, error free to achieve the Paris targets, to prevent global warming by 2 ° C" . The researchers say that the results obtained force each country to wait. to tackle emissions more quickly.