The boat "The Farmers" sways: Skerner will take the lead

After unsuccessful presidential elections, Prime Minister Skvernel DELFI declared that he was determined to continue his activities in politics, although he made sure of his withdrawal from the post of Prime Minister.

S. Skvernel repeatedly stressed that he was satisfied with his LSSR comrades and said that he was not only willing to continue working together, but that he was determined to be the one chief. As a possible scenario, S. Skvernel then named the early elections to the Seimas, which would undoubtedly represent "peasants", and added: "Together, and if there is such a willingness, I am ready to list and participate in the election campaign. "

Is such a scenario possible that S. Skvernel dislodges the Karbauskis from the party? What is the probability that LSU is in heaven? And how will everything look like a slowdown?

Urbonaite: swirling "peasant" boat

Rima Urbonaite, a political scientist at the University Mykolas Romeris (MRU), said that the election of Squernel's speech at night had to be treated with caution.

"First of all, all that was said during the election night, and not only seems to be cautious, because everything changes so that it's sometimes impossible to understand what's going on and why it's impossible to take a "minute break", with a clear message leaving the public space, "said a political scientist.

According to her, the role of S. Skvernelis as badistant to LSSR depends only on the position of R. Karbauskis. "If such a scenario does not suit him (R. Karbauskis – DELFI), he will not be (S. Skvernelis becoming the leader – DELFI) and also the question of whether Mr Squernel would himself seek a post of which he did not need it until now and that was not relevant, but if the transformation started, the party would be a very difficult transformation, and the question of what role Karbauskis would then have. create tensions and conflict situations, we can really expect that, "said Urbonaitė.

The political scientist felt that even if the "peasant" boat was spinning, there was no reason to see the breakdown. "These are not simple processes, they must clearly signal the inability of politicians to badess the situation, the manipulation of politicians by the same voters," said Urbonaitė about promises and ongoing processes in the peasantry . – We have also clearly seen some of the divisions that have emerged in the elemental part of people's logic rather than in the imagination of only one person. This is the reason why we can see that this "peasant" ship is swaying today, but probably not at the moment, taking advantage of the benefits of decomposition. Although logic and rationality are not their guiding thread, and we have seen recently, it is difficult to predict anything. "

However, if some peasants had to divorce, who could become a wizard? "This potential sabotage bloc is still rather vague, Minister Sinkevicius clearly opposes this, but, at least for the moment, he flatly rejects any such interpretation." The Prime Minister's position is faded and he is It's also difficult to say what is his current relationship with Karbauskis, and to say that we have two separate blocks, we can hardly do it today, although we can sometimes look at him more. proskvernelška and careful part of the party. But decomposition is possible when there is a benefit for someone, "said R. Urbonaitė.

Although many processes are currently taking place in the party, according to R. Urbonaitė, the most plausible scenario for the peasants themselves is to agree and continue to work serenely. "There is no early election or money, the voter is already tired of the electoral carrousel and our voter likes to change their power, so it would be good for them to consolidate themselves." inside, rather than show their weakness and failure to lose, and quietly prepare for the 2020 elections, "said a political scientist. "However, it will be difficult to say, as I have said, that it is sometimes difficult to judge where there is neither logic nor rationality."

Lopata: often follows the logic of "talking to oneself"

Raimundas Lopata, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius (VU Institute of International Relations and Political Science), stressed that since the formation of the new Seimas, he has been talk about the breakup and changes within the group, and that a new structure could still be created by those who do not belong to a party and unites around Prime Minister Saul Skvernel .

However, despite these remarks, according to a political scientist, the group members who left the group are few and insignificant.

"On Friday (a major shift in the leadership of the party – DELFI), it is difficult to expect a basic reason – the" peasant party "members themselves must realize that making such entertaining and general decisions, Not according to the actual situation, but rumor has it, seems ridiculously ridiculous.This understanding will probably prevail.It's hard to expect anything special this Friday, "said Lopata.

The political scientist pointed out that when he was talking about rumors, he was referring to the fact that before the expected result in elections, he could be removed from the ruling coalition.

"There was no factual basis for such maneuvers, the speeches saying that he mobilized rhetoric also seemed incredible," Lopata said.

VU TSPMI Professor did not start thinking about what led to the abandonment of such scenarios, and whether it was a predefined public relations strategy or whether Mr. Karbauskis had recently feared that some people can not really get out of such a strategy and unite in a separate political entity. .

"I find it difficult to answer this question, I do not jump in the head. But I repeat that it seems irresponsible and, secondly, it probably stems from the fact that it is often what is called "talking to oneself," Mr. Lopata said.

The political scientist did not intend to guess whether everything would stay that way until and after the new elections in the Seimas, or whether the existing political entity would actually collapse at some point.

"It depends on very specific circumstances that we do not know and that nobody knows," said Lopata.