[ad_1]
According to an international team of scientists, the global warming temperature can be twice as high as climate models have shown up to here. They also argue that the sea level can then reach six meters or more, and this scenario is very likely, even if the Paris Agreement is respected.
Research data published by Nature Geoscience were based on three warm periods that were the last 3.5 million years and when the global temperature was 0.5 to 2 degrees higher than that of the pre-industrial period ( 19th century AD).
Scientists used various measurements to group the effects of past climate change in order to examine what is happening They found that long-term warming of one or two degrees greatly reduced the ice layers of Greenland and Antarctica, while the sea level was increasing at least six meters – several meters more than the current climate models "Meanwhile, the temperature was much higher than expected in our models and the sea level was much higher, "said Katrin Meissner, research badociate at the Climate Change Research Center in New South Wales and one of the study's authors.
She said that today it would affect the huge population of places all over the world, and all the Pacific countries are falling under the water. "Two degrees may not seem so bad when you see them written on a pile of leaves, but the consequences are bad – the ecosystems are changing dramatically."
Meissner argued that climate models that focus on the short term do not sufficiently badess changes. 2 degrees. "Climate models are credible when small changes are underway, such as low-emission scenarios in the near term and in the coming decades up to 2100 years," she said. "But when the change becomes bigger or longer … it seems like they have not adequately badessed climate change."
An international team of scientists from 17 different countries studied three warm periods: the maximum thermal maximum of the Holocene. -9,000 years ago, the last late period, which was 116,000 to 129,000 years ago, and the warm Middle Pliocene period, which was 3 million. – 3.3 million
In the first two periods explored, climate change was caused by changes in the Earth's orbit. The increase in carbon dioxide in the middle of the Pliocene period was due to the increase in carbon dioxide levels, which, incidentally, was the same level today.
In each case, the planet is helium much slower than now. "Studies of recent warm-up periods show that several weakly reflected enhancement mechanisms in climate models modify the long-term prediction of these models and increase long-term warming and its effects," explains Hubert Fischer, professor at the University of Paris. University of Bern. 19659003] "This means that the amount of carbon dioxide can be well below estimates and, in practice, error-free in order to achieve the Paris targets, in order to prevent global warming from 2 ° C. "The researchers say that the results obtained do not force anything. do not wait and solve the problem of emissions more quickly.
[ad_2]
Source link
