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LIVE – Results of 4T 2018 GDP



Thursday, market players will see how the US economic activity behaved in the fourth quarter.

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are waiting for the product Thursday's Gross Domestic Product Economists expect the Bureau of Economic Analysis to announce that growth in gross domestic product has slowed to below 3.4%, reflecting a slowdown in annualized growth compared to the previous quarter, economy saw in the & nbsp;third quarter.& nbsp; "Data-reactid =" 23 "> Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the gross domestic product released on Thursday to show an annualized rate of increase of 2.2% for the quarter ending in December. It is widely expected that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report that growth in gross domestic product has slowed to reach a pace below the pace of 3.4% recorded in the third quarter.

The BEA generally publishes three impressions on gross domestic product for each quarter. However, Thursday's results will replace the first two fourth quarter GDP estimates as the first publication was delayed due to the partial closure of the government by 35 days. The results will be live at 8:30 am ET.

The extended shutdown also impacted the release of key data, which is the ultimate measure of gross domestic product. However, the data that poured in for December over the last few weeks has painted a stormy picture of the US economy in the fourth quarter.

"GDP growth in the fourth quarter was probably dampened by foreign trade, stocks and slow investments," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Economics. "The growth will probably be revised upwards, but the series of impressions of GDP of over 3% is over."

Prior to Thursday's results, many institutions published unreliable estimates of quarterly GDP.

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Starting Wednesday, the GDP of the Federal Reserve Atlanta This model projected a GDP increase of only 1.8% in the fourth quarter, which would represent the lowest reading since the first quarter of 2017. The prospects of the Atlanta Fed have followed one year after mixed.report on advanced economic indicators from the Census Bureau, which had identified a growing trade deficit as a result of declining exports and rising imports, the latter subtracts GDP growth. "data-reactid =" 28 "> The Federal Reserve's GDP model for Atlanta was announced on Wednesday, with GDP rising only 1.8% in the fourth quarter, which would be the most important reading. since the first quarter of 2017. The outlook for the Atlanta Fed was in the wake of a mixed report on advanced economic indicators released by the Census Bureau, which had growing trade deficit with declining exports and rising imports, the latter subtracts from GDP growth.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The New York Fed was slightly more optimistic and delivered a GDP growth forecast of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, which nevertheless represents a decline from the 3.4% growth rate recorded in the third quarter and the & nbsp;4.2% clip& nbsp; from the second quarter of 2018. "data-reactid =" 29 "> The New York Fed, however, was slightly more optimistic and anticipated 2.3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 3.4% in the third quarter and 4.2% from the second quarter of 2018.

While the economy was experiencing strong growth in early 2018, many economic data weakened at the end of the year due in part to a tightening of monetary policy and the turmoil of the economy. financial markets. The convergence of concerns would have deterred personal and business expenses and undermined consumer confidence.

"We had a fourth quarter that turned into Armageddon coming out of the pinnacle of financial ecstasy at the end of September. Based on the market shares we have observed and the tumult of markets in general, [4Q GDP] is an important reading, "said Nick Giacoumakis, president and founder of the New England Investment & Retirement Group, in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "I think it will be by far the most significant reading of 2018."

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Housing market"data-reactid =" 32 ">Housing market

While the stock market can not be confused with the economy as a whole, recent economic data – many of which factors in the reading of GDP – point to a corresponding weakening in many key economic sectors in the world. the end of 2018, particularly in the housing and manufacturing sector. .

<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The housing market has shown a weakness as & nbsp;housing starts& nbsp; plunged in December to the lowest level for more than two years, & & nbsp;Sales of existing homes& nbsp; has fallen to the lowest level since 2015. Non-defense equipment goods orders, excluding aircraft, key indicator of business spending, & nbsp;showed a surprise drop& nbsp; for December, and overall durable goods orders were weaker than expected. "data-reactid =" 34 "> The housing market was weak, with housing starts plummeting in December to the lowest level in more than two years, and existing home sales dropped by as much as Low level since 2015. Non-defense equipment goods orders, with the exception of aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, registered a surprise decline in December, and durable goods orders overall were lower than expected.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Retail spending"data-reactid =" 35 ">Retail spending

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Retail spending has proven to be a central concern after Census Bureau data indicated & nbsp;largest decline in retail sales& nbsp; in December since September 2009. Although government data is inconsistent with some private sector reports reflecting the strength of holiday purchases, the Census Bureau takes into account GDP estimates. And retail spending is a key element in determining household consumption, a sector accounting for about 70 percent of the US economy. "Data-reactid =" 36 "> Retail spending has emerged as a central concern after Census Bureau data revealed the largest decline in retail sales in December since September 2009. While governments were at odds with some private sector reports reflecting the strength of the holiday shopping period, the Census Bureau data take into account estimates of GDP consumption, a region that accounts for about 70% of the population. American economy.

"Although monthly personal expenses rose sharply by 0.6% in October and 0.3% in November, they are expected to fall in December due to the drop in retail sales figures, establishing a flexible base for 1Q19 , "Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday. .


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