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Note: Unless otherwise noted, all data collected in Elective Group Workgroups polled in non-prime choice preference surveys are 90% complete.
The good news for Joe Biden is that he is ahead of 24% of likely caucus visitors in our Iowa poll. The bad news begins with the fact that he's worse than he's polled nationally and generally weaker than he did in a previous poll in Iowa. Biden's weaknesses do not stop there.
His very favorable rating is 34%, which is behind Warren. Among those who can form an opinion on a given candidate, Biden also follows Buttigieg and Harris.
Biden voters are also less enthusiastic about voting for him than the average of the other top candidates. Only 29% of Biden supporters say they are extremely excited about voting for him. For Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren – the top four candidates – average 43%.
Biden is also touched by the uniqueness of the Iowa electorate. As in other polls, Biden voters are less educated, more moderate and older.
He gets 29% of the non-graduates and 20% of the delegates. College graduates represent 63% of the caucus participants. That's 20 to 25 points more than what they comprised of Democratic voters at the national mid-term level.
Biden reaches 17% among liberals and 31% among moderates and conservatives. The first is composed of 56% of caucuses. It was only 46% nationally at the mid-point.
When we look at the age, Biden earns 18% in the under 45s and 30% in the 45 years and over. With the congress participants, these groups represent 51% and 49% of the electorate. At the mid-point, those under 45 accounted for 40% or less of the country's Democratic voters (depending on the source).
The best national group of Oh and Biden, African Americans, represents 3% of the caucuses. They are about 20% of Democratic voters nationwide.
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