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Liverpool appear to be out of the Premier League title race. Realistically, they will not defend their 2019-2020 crown *. Instead, they’re in the midst of a fight to finish in the top four and earn a Champions League spot next season, and in good form it would be hard to call them favorites.
While fans will always hope for the miraculous, Liverpool are expected to end the season with between 66 and 76 points. With Manchester City’s resurgence and Manchester United’s form looking extremely enduring, even the top end of that wouldn’t put them in the title mix, and no matter how you break it down the Reds seem more likely to finish fifth. or sixth as first or second. .
Liverpool form since 2019-2020 restart
We will start by looking at the results since the restart of the 2019-20 season. The Reds have since played 28 league games. They won 14, nine, lost five. It’s a good record for 1.82 points per game – fourth best in the league, barely behind third best Tottenham. Over a 38-game season, that’s a pace of 69 points, a fourth to sixth place in most years.
With results down for all the top teams since the restart, however, a 69-point pace since then makes the Reds fourth-best in the league and just millimeters behind third. Not great, and hardly difficult title, but not the end of the world. A step backwards, but if the recent poor results are not the new normal, a step back which should always allow this group of records to enter the Champions League next season and with it the chance to strengthen, to heal and go back.
By comparison, Tottenham are on a 1.89 point pace since the restart, good for around 72 points per season. In front of them is Manchester United. Something laughable for many before the break and still sometimes afterwards like when they bombed the Champions League in December, their league form since the restart has been legitimately tough for the title – a pace of 2.18 points per game which would earn them 83 points. over a season.
Unsurprisingly, then, Manchester City are first – but not by much, with a pace of 2.21 points per game worth 84 points over a season. On the other side and behind Liverpool, the surprising Southampton are fifth on a pace of 1.74 points, good for 66 points per season, then Everton, Chelsea and Leicester all on the pace for a season of 64 points.
Looking at the form since the 2019-20 reboot gives us:
- Manchester city at the rate of 84 points
- Manchster United at the rate of 83 points
- Tottenham at the rate of 72 points
- Liverpool at the rate of 69 points
Liverpool form in the 2020-21 season
Looking only at this season for itself, the Reds are on pace for 68 points – a number weighed down by recent form, and which also confirms ahead of the recent string of poor results, Jürgen Klopp’s side had improved. on his 2019-2020 stumble. to restart. Heading into those last five games, Liverpool were playing well enough to rightly, if not narrowly, lead a league into a strange season.
Still, whether you combine their last five games with the first 14 or come back to the 2019-20 rerun, you get very similar numbers: 68 or 69 points. It may just be that without fans, and after the Champions League and Premier League titles, it is the inevitable setback of a tired group plagued by injury.
However, unlike when you come back to the rerun, when you look at the rest of the league this season, 68 or 69 points don’t matter – either one is only good for sixth place. .
Looking only at the results for this season:
- Manchester city are on the beat for 80 points
- Manchester United are on the beat for 80 points
- Leicester City are on the beat for 76 points
- Everton are on the beat for 72 points
- Tottenham are on the beat for 70 points.
Behind those five and Liverpool in sixth, Chelsea and Southampton have instead fallen by leaving out the 2019-20 restart as West Ham made their way into the mix.
Liverpool’s form in the last ten games
Finally, the recent form table. Watching the last ten games says much the same – even as West Ham is usurping Tottenham’s spot just outside Champions League spots and City showing signs of returning to their best form. On that note, in the last ten games, City have returned to their best and a 99-point pace. Liverpool are sixth and ahead by 65 points.
Having played half a season already, however, the question is where the teams would end up if they maintained their current form table pace the rest of the time.
Projection of recent form over the rest of the season:
- Manchester city are on the beat for 90 points
- Manchester United are on the beat for 86 points
- Leicester City are on the beat for 76 points
- Everton are on the beat for 72 points
Outside of the top four, Liverpool and West Ham would both end with 66 based on recent form and points earned so far, while Tottenham would finish with 65.
Liverpool’s Likely Best Case
Since this is a Liverpool site, we’ll also take a look at what will happen if the Reds rediscover their pre-Christmas 2020-21 form – from when they play at Tottenham. If they do, they earn 42 more points and, added to the 34 they have earned so far, end with the 76 points mentioned at the start. It would be good for third place alongside Leicester on current form. And that, a rediscovery of their pre-Christmas form, probably sounds like the best scenario.
All in all, that probably also tells us where to expect the Reds to end the season: with an upper limit of 76 points and a third place, a lower limit of 66 points and most likely to end around 68 or 69 points. . Meanwhile, it seems likely that the fourth-place team in the league will gain between 69 and 72 points, which hardly inspires confidence.
However, as difficult as it sounds, it would be foolish to rule out Jürgen Klopp and this group. Realistically, they are no longer in the title race *. They will not defend their 2019-2020 crown. But it seems much more reasonable to keep the hope that they could at least rediscover their pre-Christmas form and, with it, comfortably win in the top four.
* I’m still going to go into every game starting with Tottenham next week thinking Liverpool can win and if they do that means 91 points and probably beat City.
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