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One could forgive equity investors for some fatigue that manifested itself on Monday, the last day of what has been a successful month for equities.
The S&P 500 SPX,
and Dow industrial DJIA,
are set for their best November since 1928, with the Dow Jones also forecast for its biggest monthly return since January 1987.
But there is still fuel to buy for the next few weeks, says our call of the day by Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor-in-chief of The Kobeissi Letter.
“While we believe that many bearish headwinds persist in this market, we no longer see short-term price action in a bearish environment due to the concept of market euphoria,” Kobeissi told clients in a newsletter. “The S&P 500 has continually moved towards psychological goals, such as 3600 and a new all-time high, which can easily push the index up to 3700+.”
And while the United States sees closures related to COVID-19, economic data continues to hold up so far, he says.
“The 7-day average percentage of positive cases in the United States also fell below 10.0% last week, to close at 9.4%. If that can continue to decline, particularly below 8.0%, stocks will continue to look past the near-term headwinds of the pandemic, ”Kobeissi says.
Investors will be watching, of course, if too many Thanksgiving meetings send even more cases and hospitalizations skyrocket over the next few weeks. But the only “fundamental catalyst” that could keep the S&P 500 down is the failure of the COVID-19 vaccines, he says. And the news has been pretty good this month, hence the stock market gains.
Kobeissi also advises investors to keep an eye out for tech stocks, which have been less euphoric lately but may be anxious to return.
“FAANG (Facebook FB,
Apple AAPL,
Amazon.com AMZN,
Netflix NFLX,
and Alphabet’s Google GOOGL,
), in particular, have the potential to recover and lead the next higher stage, as hotel stocks have taken the lead in this first move to historic highs, ”says Kobeissi.
Netflix, caught his eye. Missing the recent rally, the streaming platform has been stuck in a narrow range of between $ 475 and $ 500 per share for a few weeks now, he says. That range is stuck in an even larger range, $ 460 to $ 575, which appears to “build the energy for a breakout to the upside over the next few weeks,” Kobeissi says.
If Netflix stays above $ 460 at $ 475, he says stocks could hit $ 520 a share, but he advises investors to be wary in case stocks fall below that support range. It would be his sign to back off, he said.
The steps
YM00 U.S. Equity Futures,
ES00,
NQ00,
are mostly lower, with European SXXP stocks,
Asian stocks fell across the board.
CL.1 oil price,
BRN00,
are down as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries prepares for a virtual meeting on Monday.
Cryptocurrencies are on the rise, with bitcoin BTCUSD,
above $ 18,000.
Lily: Top Reasons Bitcoin Prices Are Falling And What Could Squeeze Them Higher
The buzz
S&P Global SPGI,
announced a share buyback agreement for rival data provider IHS Markit INFO,
that values it at 44 billion dollars.
MNA from the drug manufacturer Moderna,
says it will file an emergency use authorization application with the Food and Drug Administration for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which also showed 94.1% efficacy.
Dr Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, says those in the United States who traveled on Thanksgiving and gathered in large numbers should ‘assume’ they are infected. As of Sunday, there was a record 93,219 COVID-19 patients in US hospitals.
Cyber Monday shopping event could be biggest in history after consumers spent around $ 9 billion on US retail websites on Black Friday, according to purchase tracker Adobe Analytics online. This was a 22% gain from the 2019 record, although COVID-19 fears have resulted in a 52% drop in traditional in-store traffic.
China’s largest manufacturer of chips and power packs – Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. 688981,
and China National Offshore Oil Corp. – tumbled on a report, President Donald Trump’s administration will add them to an export blacklist. It’s like a gauge of Chinese factory activity peaked at three years in November.
Pending home sales are ahead, in a busy data week that will end with Friday’s jobs data in November, when we see how many jobs have been destroyed by the second wave of the coronavirus.
President-elect Joe Biden broke his foot while playing with one of his dogs.
Table
Random readings
What the rest of the world thinks Americans can’t live without.
Beavers are returning to southwest England for the first time in 400 years.
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