Looking at the future of the free agent market



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OK, now that this is done, next year.

That took until the last day of February, but Bryce Harper agreed to sign a record $ 325 million contract as a free agent nine days after Manny Machado set the $ 300 million mark.

But you know what took a lot of time? Someone to overthrow Alex Rodriguez. In some form ($ 252 million) or another ($ 275 million), A-Rod held the record for free agent for 19 years (after Mike Hampton held it for two days in the winter of 2000 ).

Among the long-awaited promises of Machado and Harper was the $ 234 million extension of Colorado's Nolan Arenado, which will remove the best free agent projected from next year's market, even before its season of walks. . That it happened the same week that Aaron Hicks and the Miles Cardinals, Miles Mikolas, had also signed long-term before their year of march suggests the possibility that consecutive contracts of agents Shivering Autonomous Induce players to take action before embarking on the cold.

An impressive class is still on the horizon, even with Starling Marte and NL's most valuable player, Christian Yelich, having signed a long-term contract (both would have been free agents after 2019). they did not do it). But how many more of the top 10 for the 2019-2020 off season could disappear before entering the market?

1. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
St. Louis did not get the first-baseman of the Arizona slugging with only 2019 in the lead. The idea of ​​the Cardinals is that once players have discovered their environment, they will want to stay – like Mark McGwire, Matt Holliday and now even Mikolas. Recent free players have been more difficult on first-time players and players over 30 years old. Goldschmidt is a first baseman who will play this season at age 31. It is therefore likely to conclude an agreement. But it's not just a guy, Goldschmidt has four top-six finishes in the last six seasons.

2. Justin Verlander, Astros
For now, even after the release of Mikolas, the next market is planning to launch strong. And the best is considerably younger than Verlander. But I wonder if a team that thinks it's a championship candidate would be willing, for example, to spend $ 70 million over two years to land at Verlander. At $ 35 million per person, that would be tantamount to usurping Zack Greinke ($ 34.42 million) for the highest average value ever.

Gerrit Cole
Gerrit ColeAP

Verlander may be 36, but his year in Houston has been at the height of his Hall of Fame career. One more year, in 2019, even the clubs will cancel his birth certificate.

3. Gerrit Cole, Astros
Houston has ceded Charlie Morton to an independent agency, Dallas Keuchel is still on the market, Lance McCullers Jr. is absent in 2019 after the surgery of Tommy John and Verlander and Cole are entering their year of march. The Astros are at a good time, as is Cole, who is only 28 years old this year. A strong campaign could push him to join Max Scherzer (seven years, $ 210 million) / David Price (seven years, $ 217 million).

4. Chris Sale, Red Sox
As for talent / career so far, Sale is perhaps number 1 on this list. But we are worried about how a person who is built so well and who throws so hard since his election. Its 2018 shoulder problems have only exacerbated these concerns. But he's a southpaw who has been a starter for seven seasons and has never finished worse than sixth in Cy Young's vote.

5. Anthony Rendon, Nationals
He's not as good as Arenao, but he's really good and will no longer have to compete with self-service players with Arenado. That's if Rendon goes free. His agent, Scott Boras, usually asks his best customers to test the market, but Stephen Strasburg has signed a long-term contract with Washington rather than testing the waters. Boras still has to sign Dallas Keuchel and a few others, but can then turn his attention to an organization that seems more willing to stay long with Rendon on Harper.

6. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox

What becomes of Didi Gregorius? Does it come back well after Tommy John's operation? If so, are the Yankees following their desire to tie him up in the long run? If this were the case, Bogaerts would have no real competition for free agencies. And he plays this season at only 26 years old.

7. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox

He was frustrated to wait until the last season and finally get less than he had hoped for, five years to $ 110 million from the Red Sox. But he came out after the second year and in first year could have been the best hitter of the majors. S & # 39; he repeats that in 2019, the teams might ignore that he would come out after his 31 year season and mainly in the form of a DH – such is the size of his stick.

8. Josh Donaldson, Braves
The most interesting case of the year on foot. He has signed a one-year contract and endowed $ 23 million to see if he could restore his value in 2019. If he does, he will give clubs an alternative to Rendon even he's entering his 34-year season. But he has endured various injuries that have derailed him in the last two years.

9. Yasiel Puig, the reds
Even if it has a fantastic season, will clubs be frightened by questions about temperament / work habits? He goes from Los Angeles to Cincinnati and will play just 28 years old. He has a 127 OPS-plus from 2013 to 18. Machado is at 122.

10. Madison Bumgarner, the giants
San Francisco used the 10th pick in 2007 to take Bumgarner and the sixth pick in 2009 to grab Zack Wheeler. Their trendlines are interesting. Bumgarner's health and performance over the past two seasons have not been the subject of a championship vintage. Wheeler was among the top league throwers in the last four months of 2018. If that continues, Wheeler could actually become more desirable in the market (this includes July trades if the Giants and / or Mets come out of it) . And, again, there are a lot of potentially interesting newbies coming into their careers, including Jhoulys Chacin, Cole Hamels, Rich Hill, Rick Porcello and Alex Wood, and Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly after missing 2018 after the show. Tommy John's operation, plus if Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez have a chance to revive interest in their abilities.

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