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“Total precipitation of 6 to 8 inches is possible,” according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
Five million people in parts of southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are on flash flood watch until Thursday.
Life-threatening flooding could occur from Louisiana through southern Mississippi to lower Alabama over the next 48 hours. Rain rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour have already dropped with some of the storms.
The main ingredient in the potential for heavy rains is the humidity of the Gulf of Mexico. The old adage “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity” applies here. Relative humidity is usually shown as a number on a daily weather forecast. When the number is 100%, you know the air is heavy – there may even be fog.
This number you see is a measurement only at the Earth’s surface, but when the relative humidity is 100% up to 40,000 feet above the ground – which will be happening along the Gulf Coast today. Today through Thursday – the potential for flooding increases with the intense rains of this available moisture.
This very humid air pattern will stay in place for the next 48 hours in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Urban and small stream flooding will be significant with stronger storms. Even the largest rivers could experience major flooding.
Given the recent heavy rains that have already occurred, some rivers are currently in flood and may continue to rise, said Michael Mugrage of the NWS in Mobile.
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