Lyft IPO is a pure bet on the US carpooling market



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The Lyft IPO, which could take place next month, could serve as an icebreaker in the frozen IPO market. US bids have fallen, largely because of the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States.

The documents will give Wall Street an insight into the $ 25 billion worth sought by Lyft. Key questions include: how close is Lyft to profitability, how fast does the company take market share in Uber, and what are the risks these companies face?

The Lyft IPO will show how, unlike Uber, it is clearly focused on the burgeoning US carpool market.

"Lyft is much more of a bet on a US carpool market," said Asad Hussain, emerging technology analyst at PitchBook, a research firm that covers private equity markets. "It's a story of cleaner growth."

It is true that Lyft is immersed in bikes and scooters, especially by making the acquisition of the bike sharing operator Motivate.
The IPO market is still hibernating. Blame the government's closure and the chaos of the market
But Uber, the more mature company seeking up to $ 120 billion in value, is investing heavily to expand into foreign markets and into new areas such as delivery (Uber Eats), shipping (Uber Freight) and micro-mobility, with services like JUMP electric scooters. .

Uber's strategy could pay off by making it a one-stop shop for all transportation needs. But this also poses risks and puts downward pressure on Uber's margins.

"Lyft stays away from untested markets such as delivery and freight." This presents a much clearer growth story for investors, "said Hussain.

Even though ordering an Uber has become commonplace for many Americans, carpooling remains a relatively untested market.

"We have not seen how it behaves in times of recession.When you add all these other things, the water is muddy," Hussain said.

Financial results released earlier this month show that Uber lost $ 1.8 billion in 2018, compared with a loss of $ 2.2 billion the year before. But the results also show that the growth of Uber business also slowed sharply.
The story of the Lyft IPO does not come with the baggage that surrounded Uber. In recent years, Uber has been the victim of countless scandals including sexual harassment, gender discrimination and a long battle within the board of directors with the founder and co -PDG, Travis Kalanick.

For all these reasons, Lyft should generate a richer valuation than Uber.

2. Fourth quarter GDP: On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release a much-anticipated estimate of gross domestic product for the last quarter of 2018.

The publication planned last month was delayed by the closure of the government because BEA was not open while it was collecting and normally analyzing all the data used to calculate economic growth. Economists expect a more moderate figure after the second and third quarters of blockbuster, which reached respectively 4.2% and 3.4%. Forecasts currently range from 1.4% to 2.25% for the Atlanta Fed.

3. Powell speaks to Congress: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify at a House Finance Committee meeting Thursday and at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Friday.

Powell has been trying to calm the markets over the last two months by suggesting the Fed to maintain its interest rates. President Donald Trump criticized Powell and the Fed for raising their interest rates in 2018.

4. Retail earnings: Some of the biggest retailers in the country will tell Wall Street this week how they behaved during the holidays.

Home Depot and Macy's are publishing their quarterly results Tuesday, while Best Buy, Lowe's and L Brands are appearing on Wednesday. JCPenney, Nordstrom and Gap land on Thursday.

Investor expectations are high for all these companies. The economy is strong and retailers make a disproportionate share of their sales during the holidays. Wall Street will look for any cracks in their business or signs of slowing down.

5. Coming next week:

Tuesday – Home Depot (High Definition), Macy & # 39; s (M), Papa Johns (PZZA) and JM Smucker (LSU) benefit, Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee
Wednesday – Lowe & # 39; s (LOW), Best buy (BBY) and Campbell Soup (CPB) Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee
Thursday – GDP ratio, JCPenney (JCP), PG & E (PCG), gap (GPS), Nordstrom (JWN) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) earnings
Friday – Marriott (TUE) earnings

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