Magician gray bet at 50-1

This is the first Saturday in May, the 145th edition of the Kentucky Derby taking place at Churchill Downs.

It may have seemed easy in the last six years as the post-time favorite won the Run for the Roses. But if you're just playing favorites, this is not the Derby Preview for you.

I know that for many people, it is their only horse racing bet of the year and they want to stand out, regardless of the profitability of their winnings. With the scratch of Omaha Beach, favorite of the group 4-1, it simply means that the rest of the population will jump on other great contenders, especially the trio from the formation of Bob Baffert, five-time Derby coach: Winner of the game no 16 (6-1) [all odds as of Friday night], No. 5 Improbable (5-1) and No. 17 Roadster (9-1).

But believe me, this is not how we bet the ponies in the long run.

In disabling this year's derby, I want to take you back to 2005 because it reminds me of Saturday's race. There was a ton of speed at the start of the race, and I knew it would be ready for a deeper reconciliation. For me it was Wilko or Giacamo. Unfortunately, I landed on Wilko as a first choice (in retrospect, I was biased because he had cashed me $ 58.60 at the Breeders' Cup of the Jews the previous fall), but I had the intelligence to also bet on Giacamo at 50-1. This is a lesson that you can bet on multiple horses to win (usually a no-no) in big fields such as the Derby.

We have the same scenario this year.

The last five Derby winners ranked in the top three after the first quarter mile. All the jockeys know it, so I'm convinced that all those on speed horses will aim for first place and create suicidal fractions.

No. 1, War of Will ends up breaking the post # 2 now with Haikal scratch Friday morning, which will make it easier for him to place at the top of the rankings, where he will probably be joined by No. 5 Improbable, No. 6 Vekoma, No. 7 maximum security and maybe even No. 19 Spinoff if it can cut from the outside.

I do not think the jockeys will be able to hold these restless 3 year olds. If you see the first quarter of a mile in 22 seconds or even 23 seconds, you will know that I feel better about my chances for one or more of my neighbors.

Now, I firmly believe that doing your own handicap and finding "your" horse, but if you will follow with my choices, do not share them with too many people, because we do not want to kill. our parimutual prices, right?

My best game is Gray Wizard # 4 at 29-1. No horse ran in the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai and then won the Kentucky Derby (that's why you have not seen anyone boast about it yet, which suits me because I like it when I'm in counter-current), but his last kick in this race would put him in trouble on Saturday and his chances are way better than 50-1. It will help light up the tote bag if it is just making money.

Note also that Gray Magician will be leaving Door # 5, which has allowed 10 Kentucky Derby winners to win as many of their starting positions since the race began using a starting gate in 1930.

Two other farmers that I like very much are the No. 14 Win Win Win (14-1), who lost his last two races but closes regularly, and the No. 3 By My Standards (14-1), which he's rallied to win his first job After losing his first three races in career, he's a youngster growing with great potential. And I guess if I like Gray Magician, I have to include the number 9 More Than Perfect (50-1), who beat him in Dubai.

If you are looking for a "more logical" winner, my favorite horse among the best candidates is the No. 8 Tacitus at 5-1. He has come a long way to win his last two races in the Derby and Tampa Bay Wood Memorial and should be getting closer to my long shots. I use it without hesitation in my exactas, my trifectas and my superfectas.

And I would not blame anyone for adding the winning number 16 of the game and / or the number 5. Improbable in the exotic in case they would stay to finish in the money with our prize games.

But finally, I hope it's our long shots that hit the wire first and everyone around us rips the tickets and blames the jockeys, the weather or the racing gods, we'll say, "Yes, we played well 'laugh all the way to the bank.