Major snowstorm will affect 100 million people in Midwest and Northeast

What looks like the worst winter snowstorm to date aims to dump snow from the Midwest to the Northeast, affecting more than 100 million people. Some cities can be buried in up to 18 inches of snow early next week.

Cities from Chicago to Cleveland to Washington, DC and New York are watching and waiting to see exactly what the storm will do as it slides east Sunday through Tuesday. It’s the same storm system as soggy areas of California with up to 15 inches of incredible rain and over 100 inches of snow last week.

At present, the storm is located in the southwest and is moving east. At the same time, brutal cold has engulfed the Great Lakes and the northeast, where the wind chill is as low as 20 degrees below zero in parts of New England.

This cold air brings both the promise of a major snowstorm and the complication of perhaps too much cold. This is because this cold air is associated with an atmospheric block. The strength of this block will determine whether Washington, DC is buried in heavy snow or whether the target ends up near New York and southern New England.

In other words, will this block remove the storm’s path to the south, or will it allow the storm to move north? At this point, it is too early to know. So far this winter, snowfall in Washington, DC has been almost nonexistent, with only a third of an inch.

What we do know is that heavy snowfall will fall over the Midwest and the Ohio Valley on Saturday night and Sunday from Chicago to Cleveland and surrounding areas. In total, the heaviest strip of snow is expected to dump 6 to 12 inches by Sunday night, possibly including Chicago, Indianapolis and Columbus.

On Sunday, the storm will move towards the east coast, spreading snow in parts of Virginia and southern Pennsylvania. In an effort to undermine the block of cold air, the storm will transfer its energy to a developing coastal storm along the North Carolina coast. Snow can be heavy at times in places like Washington, DC

Now comes the tricky part. Is the storm sliding east toward the sea, keeping the cold air locked in the Washington area and the big snow bubble between DC and Atlantic City? Or is the storm moving northeast, burying New York, Providence, and possibly Boston in more than a foot of snow?

It is too early to be sure. But it looks like the lockdown scenario will make this a protracted event, with some cities seeing snow for 36 hours, Sunday through Tuesday. Anyone who gets stuck under the heavy group is likely to pick up 12-18 inches, with secluded spots nearly 20 inches.

If the snow did reach New York, it would likely start early Monday morning and then hit Providence on Monday afternoon. The storm is expected to emerge on Tuesday evening.

Below is a comparison of two models that show two different potential results. The first is the US Friday morning GFS model showing heavy snowfall from Washington, DC to New York. Just below is Thursday night’s European race, which shows heavier snow sliding south of New York and cutting through eastern New England.

The details will become clearer once a given city is within 48 hours of the storm arriving. So stay tuned …