Is Iran going in the direction of an (other) revolution?

Three days of demonstrations in the Tehran Grand Bazaar, with hundreds of angry shopkeepers taking to the streets against the sharp fall in the value of the Iranian currency, were suppressed by the regime. The feelings that motivated the demonstrations are still very present. The mullahs used excessive force to suppress the demonstrations. However, the scheme only saved time before other demonstrations broke out because it failed to respond to the collapse of the Iranian economy. Moreover, Iranian frustrations are exacerbated when they see that their leaders have no solution to end their difficulties. The anger of the Iranians against the regime is still high, which was clearly echoed when people chanted slogans against the supreme authority of Iran, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other senior officials, calling them thieves. At the heart of this dissatisfaction is the government's contempt for the economic prosperity of citizens for decades

What the Iranian regime does not understand is that it is one of the main catalysts of the Iranian revolution from the late 1970s was economic dissatisfaction. The Islamic Revolution has won hearts and minds by making great promises as equal educational opportunities, a healthy and robust economy based on the values ​​of the "Islamic bank", creating new jobs for young people, freedom of the press And freedom of the press. good relations with the Muslim world based on the principles of good governance. Now, the Iranians are wondering how many of these promises were made 39 years after the revolution.

So, it will not be a surprise if history repeats itself. What happened to Shah Reza Pehlevi can surely happen to the Mulla regime as well. Unlike the 2009 Green Movement, which was largely a product of Tehran's urban youth, the current unrest reflects the economic grievances of the working classes, who are alienated from Iranian institutional politics and suffer from the consequences of the economic crisis. a break economy. Demonstrations are led by disaffected youth in rural areas, cities, small towns and large urban centers. The current unrest has a broader base than the 2009 green movement.

Since the nuclear deal, the Iranian economy has improved to some extent, but citizens are complaining that the benefits have not filtered to ordinary people. Almost all economic growth has been concentrated in the oil industry. Lack of access to finance, commodities and foreign markets is a major hurdle. The Iranian rial has lost 40% of its value since last month when President Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015 and announced draconian sanctions against Tehran. Now the rial is a relatively worthless currency. The country is experiencing its worst drought in 50 years, leaving hydroelectric power generation to a minimum. Capital outflows exceeded inflows and last year, Iran had a deficit of $ 11 billion and an unemployment rate higher than 11%. Although the purchasing power parity per capita is $ 20,030 according to the International Monetary Fund, far behind neighboring Turkey and countries like Mauritius and Equatorial Guinea, the Iranian economy is fragile and s & # 39; 39, quickly leads to a spiral of death. oil and gas reserves, Iran must integrate it into the global economy and reorient the government's priorities towards improving economic conditions. It is very important that the Iranian regime abandon its policy of expansionism in the Middle East. In addition, Iran must change its foreign policy, especially towards its Arab neighbors, the European Union and countries with which it does not have diplomatic relations, such as the United States so that the Iran can also benefit from regional and global economic orders. If Iran does not act quickly to end its economic isolation, it will likely become Venezuela's Middle East.