Brexit Draft Deal: Moment of Truth for May as U.K. Cabinet to Meet

• Even if the cabinet approves the draft, there are still several steps before it could take effect. The deal needs the approval of the British Parliament, which is far from a certainty. The European Parliament and the bloc’s 27 other member states would also have to approve it.

• A key sticking point is the Irish border, a contentious issue for which there is no easy solution as negotiators try to figure out a way to allow people and goods to pass through without the imposition of border controls.

Predictions and prognostication from the British press

The power brokers of the British press weighed in on the Brexit deal, and the verdict was surprisingly muted.

Once a fierce, braying pack, ferociously attacking the slightest deviation from a clean break from the European Union, the tabloids were by and large receptive to Prime Minister Theresa May’s compromise plan — even after it was panned by hard-line Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.

UK front pages on #Brexit draft deal #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/285rvtzB4H

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Philip Bromwell (@philipbromwell)
Nov. 13, 2018

The Daily Mail took aim at the Brexit hard–liners and Irish unionists who have hinted they might derail the agreement in Parliament, calling them “deal wreckers” who, in the words of one Conservative member of Parliament, were “throwing their toys out of the pram.”

(The Mail had championed Brexit under its longtime editor Paul Dacre, who two years ago called the judges who decided that any Brexit deal had to pass Parliament “enemies of the people.” But its new editor, Geordie Greig, is believed to back a more cautious Brexit.)

Another tabloid, The Daily Express, also backed the plan: “This Brexit Deal Is Best For Britain,” its front page screamed.

That led to griping among hard-line Brexiters who worried that The Daily Express, like The Mail, was capitulating under new leadership.

The Times, the Rupert Murdoch-owned daily, appeared unhappy with the deal, however.

“May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal,” its front-page headline read. — BENJAMIN MUELLER

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The backlash begins on the right

Even before the draft Brexit deal was published, or the government had made any public statement to defend it, the backlash was well underway in Parliament, with hard-line Conservatives condemning the plan in statements and television interviews.

The hard-liners argue that the deal would leave Britain subject to European Union rules, but without having any say in making those rules. They are also alarmed that Britain would not have a unilateral right to quit the temporary customs union.

Mrs. May’s former Brexit secretary, David Davis, described the deal on Twitter as “EU domination, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd class status,” and adding that “Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation.”

As she left meetings at 10 Downing Street on Wednesday, Penny Mordaunt, the minister for international development, refused to answer reporters who asked whether she supported the plan.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a hard-core Brexit supporter and longtime critic of the government’s negotiating strategy, told the BBC that the proposed deal was “a failure of the government’s negotiating position and a failure to deliver on Brexit.” — STEPHEN CASTLE

On the floor of Parliament, sparks from the left

Conservatives were not the only politicians condemning Mrs. May’s plan before the cabinet meeting.In Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party leader, traded barbs with the prime minister.

“From what we know the government’s deal is a failure in its own terms,” Mr. Corbyn said. “It doesn’t deliver a Brexit for the whole country. It breaches the prime minister’s own red lines.”

Mrs. May retorted that the Labour Party had “only one intention, and that is to frustrate Brexit and betray the vote of the British people.”

She refused to be drawn into offering any details of the agreement; in particular, she declined to respond when Mr. Corbyn asked if it was true that Britain would not have the unilateral right to withdraw from the customs deal.

Even by the raucous standards of the House of Commons, the catcalling was heavy, prompting the speaker of the chamber, John Bercow, to interrupt debate multiple times to plead for some semblance of order.

Mr. Corbyn, along with the leaders of the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, a Welsh party, released a letter demanding that Parliament not only vote on the deal, but that it also be allowed to consider amendments. An up-or-down vote on the negotiated agreement, Mr. Corbyn said, would be “a false choice before Parliament between her botched deal and no deal.” — RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA

The Irish problem

The prime minister’s Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, so her government relies on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which voiced opposition to the deal even before it was made public.

The D.U.P.’s leader, Arlene Foster, made clear in her statement late Tuesday that she was not happy with the emerging deal. She was traveling to London on Wednesday.

Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior D.U.P lawmaker, went further, telling the BBC on Wednesday that what he had heard of the draft Brexit deal “undermines the constitutional and economic integrity” of the United Kingdom, and warning that he was not afraid of precipitating a general election by opposing the plan.

The Conservatives hold 315 seats in the House of Commons, short of the 326 needed for an outright majority, and Mrs. May needs the tacit support of the D.U.P., which has 10 seats and campaigned for Brexit. A majority of Northern Ireland voters opposed it.

The most delicate aspect of the plan is the so-called backstop to prevent physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.

From what is known of the draft, Britain would stay temporarily in a customs union with the European Union until a long-term trade deal is negotiated. But the obligations on Northern Ireland would be deeper, particularly in obeying standards laid down by the European Union’s single market, leading to increased regulatory checks on goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland.

That is seen as an almost existential threat by the D.U.P., which wants to remain part of the United Kingdom.

For the D.U.P., voting against Mrs. May’s deal risks precipitating a general election that could bring Jeremy Corbyn, the opposition Labour Party leader, to power. Mr. Corbyn has a history of strong ties to Sinn Fein, which promotes a united Ireland.

The D.U.P. might be less worried about the other possible outcomes of blocking Mrs. May’s plan, such as a no-deal Brexit, and might conclude that this could strengthen ties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. It might also calculate that another referendum that reversed Brexit and kept the status quo would be less objectionable than Mrs. May’s deal. — STEPHEN CASTLE

A rhetorical about-face from Theresa May

Rest in peace, “no deal is better than a bad deal.” Long live compromise.

Mrs. May is not generally seen as a stealthy political operator, but Wednesday signaled a sharp reversal of the pledge that has been her Brexit mantra. For nearly two years, she has repeatedly assured the country in her crisp, no-nonsense way that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.”

This promise — that she would walk away rather than compromise Britain’s interests — helped her hold onto the allegiance of hard-line Brexiteers in her own party. It projected such optimism and confidence that the pound rose sharply in the hours after she first articulated it.

But on Wednesday, it was clear that Mrs. May’s message had been a bluff. It has been replaced by the opposite logic, conveyed in the most urgent terms: A compromise with the European Union — a package of wins and losses — is better than no deal.

Economists and business leaders have warned that an abrupt, “cliff edge” Brexit, without an agreement to take the place of membership, could have disastrous consequences for Britain, including shortages of food and other goods and sudden price increases. Moderate voices have long urged compromise as the only sensible solution.

Mrs. May’s rhetorical sleight of hand helped keep hard-liners on board, while conveying to Brussels it should give a little, to prevent a chaotic exit.

But by adopting the language of her party’s euroskeptic right wing for so long, Mrs. May ran the risk of a last-minute explosion.

For Brexiteers, this deal has less to do with practical consequences than with passion and principle. Mrs. May’s adamant words made them bolder. If they feel they have been tricked, she could pay the price. — ELLEN BARRY

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A watery new catchphrase

To the canon of Brexit metaphors — the divorce, the cliff’s edge, the cake-eating — negotiators have added another: the swimming pool.

Inscrutable as it may be, that’s how diplomats in Brussels are describing a crucial piece of the Brexit deal: the decision on how closely Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be yoked to the European market if Britain and the European Union cannot negotiate a long-term trade deal after Brexit, the journalist Robert Peston reported.

This swimming pool has two levels. Northern Ireland would be in the deep end, up to its nose in European regulations. That would keep trading frictionless with Ireland, which is in the European Union, preventing the return of an Irish border.

But Great Britain would be in the shallow end. It would stay in the European customs union, like Northern Ireland, but escape the single market for goods. That would give it some distance from the bloc’s regulations but still prevent it from striking its own trade deals with non-European countries.

Still with us?

The division between deep and shallow ends of the pool could be a deal-breaker.

It would mean different trading rules within the United Kingdom, and the prospect of a border — however meaningless European negotiators insist it would be — in the Irish Sea. — BENJAMIN MUELLER

Brussels watches, waits and wonders

Brussels was tracking events in London nervously, concerned about whether Mrs. May can get the deal through her cabinet and the Parliament — and what would follow if she could not.

In European Union offices, there is a general but unfocused hope that somehow Britain will reverse itself and remain in the European fold, presumably through a second referendum. But there is also deep fatigue, even annoyance, with the whole issue, which other member nations believe has diverted attention from pressing problems like migration, conflict with Russia, potential trade war with the United States, populist dissension within the bloc, and European elections next spring.

As the British cabinet meets Wednesday afternoon, ambassadors of the other 27 nations of the European Union will also be briefed on the draft deal. The agreement would have to be ratified by the leaders of the member nations, and by the European Parliament.

The hope is that the European Union can hold a special Brexit summit meeting before the end of November to win approval for the agreement and the accompanying nonbinding political declaration. Britain is scheduled to leave the union on March 29.

Leaks about the draft agreement have concentrated on the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The resolution reportedly means Britain must adhere to European Union rules while no longer having a vote on them, an arrangement that critics have called “vassalage.”

But from the point of view of the bloc — a creature of rules, laws and regulations — anything that undercuts the single market is unacceptable, including competition on tariffs and regulations from a nonmember, as Britain soon may be.

If the agreement wins approval in Britain, the two sides must still negotiate a long-term deal on their future trading relationship. — STEVEN ERLANGER

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