Five things to know about the Cambodian national elections

BANGKOK – On July 29, Cambodians will vote for what should be the most controversial national election since the launch of the electoral system in 1993.

Following the forced dissolution of Cambodia's largest opposition Rescue Party (CNRP) last November, the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) led by Prime Minister Hun Sen has no viable rival and seems to have already secured his victory. But with former CNRP members calling on voters to boycott the elections completely, it is not yet clear whether this victory will be credible.

Moreover, Western countries increasingly disapprove of the authoritarian regime of strong man Hun Sen. The man who has maintained his grip on power for 33 years will be in a difficult period even after five years of tenure

Here are five issues to keep in mind before the elections.

Why does this election matter?

Hun Sen wants a landslide victory to legitimize his increasingly authoritarian authority. But the legitimacy of the election itself was questioned as a result of the dissolution of the major opposition force last November. Following a request from the government, the Supreme Court decided to dissolve the CNRP for "conspiracy" with the United States to seize power in Cambodia.

Twenty parties have registered to contest the July elections but none should be a major threat Hun Sen's CPP

National elections in Cambodia have been held every five years since 1993, two years after the signing of the Paris peace agreement to end the conflict in Cambodia, to choose the members of the National Assembly of 123 seats. The number of seats will increase to 125 from this next election.

The CPP won all elections, sometimes by more than 50% of the vote, with the exception of the first in 1993 when he finished in second place. However, he joined the ruling coalition and Hun Sen became second prime minister

Prior to the ousting of the CNRP, this year's elections were to be a tough contest for the ruling party as a result of the election. a serious setback in the 2013 elections. The opposition won nearly 45% of the vote, compared with 49% of the CPP. The CNRP has made further progress in the 2017 municipal elections.

Who is Hun Sen and who supports him?

Including his second prime minister, he is the oldest elected leader in Southeast Asia. According to local reports, he is the third longest in the world.

He is a former Khmer Rouge soldier who eventually fled to Vietnam to oppose the bloody regime that killed millions of people. After arriving in Cambodia and defeating the Khmer Rouge in 1979, the Vietnamese returned to the helm of foreign affairs at the age of 28, remaining at the center of Cambodian politics ever since.

His role in the end of the Khmer Rouge genocide appealed to voters, especially those in older generations with direct experience of tragedy. The CPP has a broad base of supporters in rural areas where communities receive help and incentives in exchange for political loyalty.

CNRP supporters are predominantly city dwellers and younger voters born in the post-Khmer Rouge era. What choices do voters have?

In this election, there are approximately 8 million eligible voters, including 2 million young voters for the first time.

Voters will either go to the polls and choose from the 20 registered parties or choose not to vote at all. CNRP self-exiled members called on voters to stay home on polling day by promoting a "clear fingers" campaign, referring to the practice of staining the index with ink when a voter submits a ballot.

For Hun Sen, who wants a strong, legitimate victory, a low turnout is not advisable. He worked to cement his support base by visiting garment factories and distributing money to workers.

He also stifled dissent by shutting down the media and throwing anti-government militants behind bars. The government has not yet defined punitive measures for those who fail election day, but a spokesman for the CPP told the Nikkei Asian Review in an interview earlier this month that boycotting the election would be tantamount to to a "betrayal".

Songrit Pongern, a lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science at Kasetsart University in Thailand, said Hun Sen would need at least half of the eligible voters to come to the polls to "justify his victory". He added, however, that this would be much weaker than in previous elections, since voter turnout has never been less than 80%

Is there international pressure for the government to organize a credible election? 19659002] The United States and the European Union announced that they would not finance the July elections following the exclusion of the main opposition party.

Following the government crackdown and the dissolution of the CNRP, the US administration imposed visa bans. Cambodian officials who "undermine democracy". The EU, meanwhile, announced that it was considering sanctions, such as stopping access to the Cambodian market, which accounts for more than 40% of the country's clothing exports. country.

However, Hun Sen seems unflappable thanks to his strong support of China who is now the largest foreign direct investor in Cambodia.

The country occupies a strategic position for President Xi Jinping's belt and road initiative. Earlier this year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed infrastructure development and loan agreements in Cambodia.

Cambodia's support for territorial conflict with other Southeast Asian countries China Sea.

China will send election observers, along with Myanmar and Singapore.

Assuming the victory of Hun Sen, what will happen next?

or beginning of September. After that, the new National Assembly will hold a vote of confidence in the government that will likely have Hun Sen as prime minister.

While Beijing is expected to approve the election results immediately, other sanctions could be imposed by other counties such as the United States and the EU. A drop in exports could be a blow to the country's economy, which has risen to an annual average of 7%.

Hun Sen is committed last September to maintain power for another decade. But at the age of 65, it is thought that he could begin to seriously seek to choose a successor. He was quoted as saying that his successor would be "a child of the CPP".

His eldest son Hun Manet, who is deputy chief of Hun Sen's bodyguard unit and was promoted to a four-star military general earlier this year, is seen as a serious contender.