Has Chinese investment immunized Hun Sen against sanctions?

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To witness the shameless nature of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's crackdown on opposition, one might think that he was operating in a vacuum, outside of international norms and expectations.

In the months leading up to the July 29 elections, he repeatedly ignored calls for the reinstatement of the main opposition party. He rejected the release requests of their leader Kem Sokha. He denied the allegations of suppression of the freedom of the press. He has often shown contempt for human rights defenders.

Some have speculated that his encouraging and seemingly unfriendly approach is in part due to the generosity of the Chinese good neighborly diplomacy strategy that has allowed the country to make money. While Beijing's multibillion dollar investments have undoubtedly provided Hun Sen with development and economic gains, are they really immune to Western sanctions and exempted from international standards?

Trust in the West [19659007] "Cambodia for the last quarter China 's support reduces Hun Sen' s dependence on the West and his susceptibility to Western demands to improve the democratic climate or defend human rights. "man", author of Cambodia of Hun Sen. and affiliate researcher at the Carolina Asia Center of the University of North Carolina, Sebastian Strangio, told Asian Correspondent .

Strangio stresses that Hun Sen has long felt these claims from Western countries. During his reign of 33 years, he was able to circumvent them and "manipulate" them.

But since his ruling party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), has lost support for the 2013 elections, losing its negotiating mandate. gave him the freedom to do what he must do to stay in power.

SEE ALSO: All you need to know about the Cambodian election

According to a new Beijing invested $ 9 billion between 2010 and 2016, making Cambodia one of the first recipients of Chinese aid in the world, arriving just behind Malaysia.

In fact, in 2016, China overtook Cambodia According to figures from the Cambodia Development Council (CDC), it should become the largest source of investment capital of the Kingdom

<img title = "2018-06-18T100457Z_345492867_RC12A3C28E60_RTRMADP_3_CAMBODIA-CHINA Has Chinese investment made Hun Sen immune to sanctions?" class = "size-full wp-image-193514" src = "https://cdn.asiancorrespondent.com/wp-content/ uploads / 2018/06 / 2018-06-18T100457Z_345492867_RC12A3C28E60_RTRMADP_3_CAMBODIA-CHINA.jpg "alt =" 2018-06-18T100457Z_345492867_RC12A3C28E60_RTRMADP_3_CAMBODIA-CHINA [19659017] Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe (L) shakes hands with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen before a meeting in Phnom Penh in Cambodia on June 18, 2018. Source: Reuters / Samrang Pring

In January, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang billions of dollars to develop infrastructure, agriculture and the C health system

While Western governments backed their support for the elections for reasons of rights abuses, Chi went into the breach to give Cambodia money and voting materials, including computers, printers, photocopiers, cameras, ballot boxes and voting booths.

SEE ALSO: Cambodia: new media restrictions threaten freedom of the press

This pledge of support conveyed a clear message that Chinese aid to the Kingdom would not be affected by human rights.

Progress Through Progress

The benefits of this investment are double for Hun Sen.

In addition to giving him the confidence to resist external pressure on human rights issues, he also provided the PCP with a "financial legitimacy" that allows the ruling elite to survive, co-found and vice versa. The president of the Cambodian Institute of Strategic Studies, Vannarith Chheang, told Asian Correspondent .

"China has provided a new platform to Cambodian politicians, who are financial resources.They need money from China, they need investment and trade with China to strengthen their legitimacy, "said Vannarith." In order for the ruling party and the ruling elite to survive, they must give the main source people their legitimacy.Thus, the legitimacy of the production (l & # 39; public evaluation of the quality of the performance of the institution) really defines the future of the ruling party here in Cambodia. "

SEE ALSO: The secret of Hun Sen's power? His mortal henchmen

But this injection of money goes only very far. There are other areas that, if the European Union and the United States chose to target with sanctions, could constitute an Achilles stub for Hun Sen and the emerging economy of the US. Cambodia

A garment factory in Sisophon, Cambodia. Source: Shutterstock

Hun Sen's Achilles' heel

Chinese investment can theoretically offset the withdrawal of Western aid, the withdrawal of support for Cambodian elections and even financial support reduced from the army. an injection of $ 100 million to modernize the armed forces.

But "Hun Sen's main vulnerability lies in his heavy reliance on European and US markets for clothing exports," according to Strangio

. 72 percent of Cambodia's exports and employs nearly 850,000 people; That's 86 percent of all those working in the industrial sector, according to a 2018 report from the Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts. Most of this money goes to the European Union and to North America, which receives almost two-thirds of Cambodia's total exports.

Cambodia's confidence in this trade became evident last week. the EU to repair links after the bloc threatened to pull the country out of its free-trade agreement called "Everything but arms".

SEE ALSO: "A bit harsh": Cambodia's response to its growing list of critics

"It is unlikely that the Chinese agreement will soon replace these vital export markets for the Cambodian government, "said Strangio. "Obviously, they want to go in this direction, but it will be a long time before the amount of clothing destined for the United States and the EU can be replaced by Chinese demand."

Sanctions targeting this area could be potentially devastating for Hun Sen's hold on power

As Vannarith points out, the garment industry is easy to move and Cambodia is surrounded by countries neighbors where competition remains strong. It is unlikely that international companies are considering a more competitive market, leaving garment workers – a significant part of the Cambodian workforce – the hardest hit.

Although Hun Sen is still able to do it To tout anti-Western nationalism, according to Vannarith, it is unlikely that he has much credibility while people are facing growing unemployment.

"You have to give people jobs," said Vannarith. "What people want now is jobs, jobs, jobs, so Hun Sen needs to make sure people have jobs to maintain their legitimacy and power base."

Garment workers greet Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen at a rally in Kandal province, Cambodia May 30, 2018. Source: Reuters / Samrang Pring

Not the gold note

This economic node prevents Chinese investment from being the gold note that Hun Sen wants so much.

Beijing's financial support undoubtedly encouraged its approach and placed democracy even further in the hierarchy, as Strangio asserted: "China has allowed Hun Sen to do what he has done. wants more overtly without having to go through ritual and theater to maintain the illusion of democracy in Cambodia. "