Hunting for Reason-The New Frigates

The 2016 Defense White Paper stated that the nine new future frigates would be "optimized for anti-submarine warfare". According to the Turnbull government, they will be "one of the most advanced anti-submarine war frigates in the world". It is reasonable to think that, for $ 35 billion, the government is facing a serious submarine threat in Australia

The interest in the acquisition of submarines in Asia from Southeast has increased significantly. Vietnam has bought six Kilo-class submarines from Russia. Indonesia adds three Korean-built submarines to its inventory of two upgraded 209-type Cakra classes. Two German submarines have been ordered to complement Singapore's existing fleet. Thailand will buy three Yuan-class Chinese vessels, and Myanmar has expressed interest in acquiring underwater capacity. Malaysia has long-term plans to double its current underwater numbers to four by 2040.

The White Paper predicts that "[w] in the wider Indo-Pacific region, in the next two decades, half of the submarines operating in the region "and" [b] y 2020, China's submarine force is expected to reach more than 70 submarines ". India currently operates 14 submarines.

The best practice in structuring forces is not to be able to guess the future intentions of neighboring states – circumstances and politics change, and over time, allies can become friends and vice versa.look at the possible forces that might be ranked against national interests.By adopting a narrow vision and focusing on the emerging interest in submarines in the near region of the world. Australia, it is easy to understand that the threat of us-marine is not totally negligible.

to deal with the underwater threat in relation to other strategic challenges. In addition, as part of this constraint, a decision is needed on the amount of anti-submarine warfare capacity sufficient. Does the regional threat justify the costly "most advanced anti-submarine war frigate in the world"?

It is difficult to answer this question from outside the Russell offices of the Department of Defense. Anti-submarine warfare is a complex and evolving affair. It is a highly classified cat and mouse game where submariners and surface antagonists are constantly trying out better measures and countermeasures. And the competition takes place in a hostile and ruthless environment.

Sonar technology is divided into two areas: the "wet end" and the "dry end". The research on the wet end is based on acoustics and oceanography. The effectiveness of the sonar depends on the understanding of the unique physical, chemical and biological signature of the water plane in which the sensor is used. In addition to scientific expertise in geophysics and oceanography, underwater acoustics involves detecting and distinguishing the signature of the target in the midst of wind, wave, boat engine, and cable noise. strumming, and scattered sounds from other distant objects.

The increasingly sophisticated end-to-end treatment uses digital technology, statistical programs and now artificial intelligence to try to overcome these challenges. Standard signal processing techniques such as beamforming, spectral analysis, and statistical analysis determine the probability of reaching a target or identifying a false alarm.

Developments of unmanned underwater vehicles for military applications tactical approaches to submarine warfare. China, Russia and the United States all pursue this technology.

It takes decades to build national capacity in the areas of technical expertise essential to the effective operation of submarines. The submarines also need a well trained professional service to make them work and maintenance arrangements. Outside Singapore, no nation in Southeast Asia will be able to ride a powerful submarine force for long.

Thus, the government's decision to spend $ 35 billion over the next decade to build the fighter fleet raises a question. . Is this level of capacity proportional to the regional threat?

The Poseidon P-A8, as announced by the Prime Minister, was designed by the US Navy to dominate the anti-submarine war. According to the white paper, the future 50-billion-dollar submarine project could also make "a significant contribution to anti-submarine warfare in our region." Overall, the Hunter, P-A8, and future submarine force's overall anti-submarine capability appears disproportionate to the regional threat.

On the other hand, all this capacity could be destined for the South. China Sea. However, the optimization of the anti-submarine capability to operate in China's cold and deep waters as opposed to the warm, shallow waters of the Australian coastline would likely be an unprofitable outcome for the Defense Dollar. . If the intention is there, the Australians have been misled.

The focus on interoperability with the United States in almost all government announcements could indicate that the actual goal of a $ 100 billion investment would be ready for the # 39; Australia. with the United States in the South China Sea if a conflict breaks out.

There may be a strategic rationale for diverting investment in this capacity and moving it away from national infrastructure or the provision of health or education services. Rather than trying to appease the Australian public with reassuring words about borders and search and rescue, and to indefinitely reiterate insignificant simplistic slogans about security, the government should say it's safe. there is a tacit agreement in Canberra and / or a commitment with the United States in an East Asian conflict.