Seehofer's position on migrants leaves his destiny in balance

Horst Seehofer could have claimed a decisive moral victory. Instead, the German Interior Minister has left Angela Merkel's coalition still in the balance – and a country still enigmatic.

For weeks, Mr Seehofer asked the Chancellor to adopt stricter rules on asylum. from an EU summit on Friday with a set of measures aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration. Many in his party, the Christian Social Union, have embraced the reforms. The path was clear for reconciliation with the CDU of Merkel, the sister party of the CSU, on an issue that threatened her government.

"He could have put everything together in such a wonderful story, and congratulated himself on everything Merkel did," said Richard Hilmer, head of Policy Matters, a political advisory firm.

The Chancellor has indicated his minister in this direction. "The CSU really pushed us to look for this European solution," she said in a television interview

. I do not see any strategy there. It's like he was going to war without thinking how he will get out in the end

But Mr. Seehofer refused to take the bait. At a CSU party marathon executive meeting in Munich on Sunday, he said the summit's results did not go far enough. He then deepened the government crisis by stating that he preferred to step down as Interior Minister and CSU rather than give in to Merkel.

Mr. Seehofer's behavior left commentators wondering why he had launched his insurgency fallout – and his resistance to finding a solution.

"I do not see any strategy there," said Tilman Mayer, a political scientist at the University of Bonn. "It's like he's going to war without thinking how he'll get out in the end."

million. Seehofer began his offensive against the CDU last month when he proposed that refugees be turned back at the German border if they were already registered in other EU countries. He threatened to promulgate the policy on Merkel's objections. She hinted that she would fire him if he did it. Fears have arisen for the future of the 70-year-old alliance between the CDU and the CSU, and with it the faltering coalition of Merkel.

After having prayed for the time to find a European solution to the question of asylum, Mrs Merkel duly delivered one.

Still, Mr. Seehofer refused to back down, despite the moderate voices of his own party who called for reconciliation. On Monday, talks to find a compromise were held, and a crisis meeting of senior officials from all parties of Merkel's "grand coalition" – CDU, CSU and Social Democrats – was also scheduled for Monday night [19659012]. The speculation revolved around why Mr Seehofer chose the fight in the first place.

A great motivation was undoubtedly the electoral challenge that his party faces from the populist alternative for Germany. It is now so strong that it could deprive the party of its absolute majority in the Bavarian elections of next October.

Many CSU strategists attribute the party's poor performance in the September national elections to its inability to impose a stricter government line on refugees. It only got 38.5%, nearly 11 percentage points less than in 2013.

Polls consistently show voters are in favor of tighter border controls and limits to immigration. Such ideas are also popular with the CDU, which was at best ambivalent about Merkel's decision to keep German borders open in 2015 at the height of the European migration crisis.

million. Seehofer and other members of the CSU executive at their arms at the border closure would restore credibility to voters. But the vehemence of her personal attacks on Merkel and her apparent willingness to jeopardize the CSU / CDU alliance seem just as likely to alienate voters as he is wooing.

"German voters reward unity and punish those who threaten to break the alliances," Hilmer said. "There is some sympathy for the position of the CSU, but the way it did it only scares people."

This has been reflected in the polls. According to the first RTL / N-tv barometer, only 48% of CSU voters support Mr Seehofer in his fight against Ms Merkel, while 49% support the Chancellor. The same poll found that more than two thirds of Germans, like Mrs Merkel, want a European solution to the question of asylum.

"What was presented as an effort to restore the credibility of the party has become exactly the opposite" Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin. "The CSU and its protagonists seem totally untrustworthy, and it's a quality that voters really do not approve of."

The worst for Mr. Seehofer and his allies is the perception that they are more motivated by personal animosity than by political conviction. "For CSU, it seems that everything is about individuals and parties," said Heinrich Oberreuter, director of the Passau Institute of Journalism and CSU expert, "when he s' acts of politics and common good ".