Trade War Could Turn Trump's Biggest Strength into Weakness

Last Friday's official figures show that the US economy has exceeded expectations and added more than 200,000 jobs in June

The credit you want to give Trump for these numbers probably depends at least on your political weight. Democrats often note, correctly, that these positive trends began under President Barack Obama. But, as the Republicans also correctly note, they continued under Trump. It is now his economy.

That's why analysts raised eyebrows at the trade war that Trump started and stoked.

As many economists have noted, there are winners and losers in trade wars. Some sectors thrive with the help of the government, others are struggling as foreign governments target them – like soybean growers in counties who have largely voted for Trump, as recently explained Data Download .

But beyond these specifically targeted effects, consumers almost always feel pain. An analysis by Moody's Analytics predicts that commercial disputes launched by Trump will cost the United States 0.2% economic growth, some 250,000 jobs and $ 210 more and more per family, on average.

remarkable when you zoom in on the explicit products and types of products affected by the commercial struggle.

Some of the tariffs that the US government has put on Chinese products hit very specific items, such as solar panels. According to Energy Sage, these rates will add between $ 500 and $ 1,000 to the total cost of installing solar panels.

But others are much wider and more likely to hit a wide range of consumers, such as the US tariffs on steel. aluminum. These metals are found in many products, including household appliances, where cost impacts may be more noticeable. Jonathan Gold, an official at the National Retail Federation, predicted that prices for appliances, from water coolers to mini-refrigerators, could increase by 25 percent after tariffs start.

And Trump is considering a 25% tariff on imported cars. According to the Association of Global Automakers, which includes the three major automakers in the Greater Detroit area, the average motor vehicle costs $ 5,800 per foreign vehicle.

These repercussions on consumers are not lost for the Trump administration. In fact, between the list of China's original tariff targets in the spring and the final list this summer, the United States has eliminated some products that they considered the most popular, such as flat-screen TVs.

Sure, but when you need to buy a new thermostat or sedan, you have to buy one and if your product is not exempt, you're out of luck. And, of course, there are small price hikes that will affect everyone, as the cost impact discussed very much "aluminum can tins" on beer drinkers.

Again, all of this has a special meaning for Trump. and for the Republicans, who did not know how to challenge him on the trade – because the economy is an area where Trump is doing well with the voters.

A CNBC poll at the end of June, Trump's overall approval was only 41%, but politically, these numbers show the complex challenge that Trump faces on the commercial front

. . In a very real sense, he owes these voters, and the rates hold a promise that he made them. But while he pursues a commercial war strategy, he risks harming the strong economy that has kept him afloat with other voters.

As the trade war continues, or even develops, in the coming months will probably reveal a lot about the fate of Trump's presidency.