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BEIJING : The first shots were fired in a trade war between China and the United States that, according to experts, could be detrimental to the global economy.
The two superpowers on Friday imposed tariffs While US President Donald Trump dismissed warnings that trade frictions with powerful partners like China could harm the United States, Beijing has other weapons in his arsenal next to the tariffs to cause damage.
Cruise for a Bruise
The Tom Cruise Movies, the Starbucks Coffee, the iPhone X and the Buick are all bestsellers in China and the authorities could find all sorts of ways to make life difficult. Louis Kuijs, Asian Analyst at Oxford Economics
China "has less ammunition in terms of taxing tariffs, but history shows that there are several other measures that could inflict suffering on US companies, "said Kuijs. 19659002] He cited "sca health, safety and tax controls carried out, delaying the importation of goods and boycotts of American goods."
Chinese port authorities have already begun to multiply deli inspections and American wagons, causing serious delays.
Buick Boycott
General Motors now sells more cars in China than in the United States – and many other iconic American brands are now pulling a large chunk revenue from the growing Chinese market. According to the same source, Mark Williams, chief economist for Asia at Capital Economics, could hold a "propaganda campaign," according to experts.
"In the past, they have proven to be both effective and fast," said Williams, noting that similar campaigns against South Korea and Japan at times of political tension "have led to 50". % FA Last year, Chinese consumers suddenly turned against South Korean retailer Lotte, who was forced to close three quarters of its stores in China after supplying Seoul with land to sell cars there. . deploying a US missile defense shield against which Beijing opposes
School's out
China could start limiting the number of tourists who spend a lot money and its 350,000 students. "China's spending on travel and education in the United States is similar to that of soybeans and US planes – the two largest purchases of goods," Williams said.
China has already limited tour groups to Taiwan and South Korea, noted the expert.
However, he added: "China may feel that US universities have limited power over the Trump administration and limiting the number of students could jeopardize efforts to improve the technical and scientific capabilities of China."
Boeing out
Boeing sells a quarter of its aircraft to China, the second largest market in the world, and the American aerospace giant is at side by side with his European rival Airbus.
Most Chinese airlines are under state control and their orders are strictly driven by Beijing.
Even though orders are planned for the next five years, the nationalist tabloid Global Times has already issued a warning could [traduction] "adjust sales volumes".
Debt and Devaluation
With its huge foreign exchange reserves, China holds about $ 1.2 trillion US Treasury bonds and While some see this as a powerful currency exchange with Washington, it is a double-edged sword for Beijing, since the dumping of bonds would cause self-inflicted losses.
Another weapon available to Beijing is the yuan. , tightly controlled by the central bank, that it could depreciate to support exporters.
But again, this could be a self-inflicted injury, as it could cause significant capital outflows from China.
Capital Julian Evans-Pritchard The Economics said: "While a weaker currency could offset some of the economic damage caused by US tariffs, the broader risks for financial stability would not be not valid. "
Korean Cooperation
If economic weapons do not work, Beijing could turn to politics. Trump strongly relies on Chinese cooperation to contain Kim Jong Un's nuclear ambitions in North Korea, particularly in terms of maintaining sanctions.
Trump could find China less accommodating on this explosive issue if the trade war spread. – AFP
