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“Sales activity has jumped 229% from a year ago,” said Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel. This huge spike from last year is skewed, however, as sales fell by around 50% in the third quarter of 2020 due to the pandemic.
What is more convincing, he said, is the number of sales relative to the market before the pandemic. More apartments were sold in Manhattan in the last quarter than at any time in more than three decades, according to the report. The 4,523 apartment sales in the quarter were more than triple that of the same period last year, but were also 77% higher than the same period in 2019.
“The reason we have this demand in Manhattan is not just the return of people from the suburbs to the city, it is the inbound migration from other parts of the country, with the arrival of students and the opening more institutions, ”Miller said.
The median third-quarter selling price was $ 1,115,000, according to the report. That’s up 1.4% from a year ago, but $ 100,000 below the record median selling price set in 2019.
Luxury sales contributed to the strong sales growth, in part because the luxury market was so weak before the pandemic.
There has been more growth at the high end of the market than at the low end during the pandemic, Miller said, due to the heavy economic toll on low wages. Sales of apartments priced above $ 4 million rose 133% in the last quarter compared to the third quarter of 2019, while the number of sales below $ 4 million increased 73% from a year ago. is two years old.
But the rest of the Manhattan market is moving forward, Miller said.
“Compared to last year, the market is more normal,” he said. “All price sectors are strengthening, it’s not just the top of the range.”
While historically low inventories plagued housing markets across the United States, in Manhattan the market was crowded with apartments available to buy during the pandemic. But that supply continues to tighten. In the third quarter of this year, there was a supply of 5.1 months of available homes at the current pace of sales. This was down 26% from last quarter and down 75% from a year ago, when there was a pandemic peak of 20 months of inventory available.
Competition is intensifying, with the share of bidding wars reaching its highest level in three years, according to the report.
But buyers are even less likely to have to fight for a home in Manhattan than in a suburb just outside of town, Miller said. The share of Manhattan auction wars – defined as properties sold above the last listing price – rose to 8.3%, the highest share in three years. But it is still well below the record of 31% recorded in Manhattan in the third quarter of 2015.
“We don’t see the same frenzy in Manhattan as in the suburbs, but it has clearly increased,” Miller said.
Even with near-record mortgage rates, all-cash purchases were strong, accounting for nearly half of all purchases in the third quarter, according to the report.
Overall, Miller said the data suggests the New York market is approaching a pre-pandemic picture, although New York still has challenges ahead. Continued sales growth will depend, he said, on continued progress against the coronavirus and the degree to which mortgage rates rise.
“There is always a Covid discount in certain segments of the market,” Miller said. “But it is diminishing rapidly.”
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