Mats Zuccarello Trade: breaking everything

Knowing that something difficult is going to come does not make things easy.

Even though the fans were prepared for the eventual departure of Mats Zuccarello – now standing on his way to Dallas – it was no easier when the information was canceled. And when already excited fans saw the lean return announced for the first time, the situation got worse.

Jeff Gorton acquired a conditional choice in the second round in 2019 and a conditional choice in the third round in 2020. If the Dallas Stars win two rounds in the playoffs (and Zuccarello play 50% or more of the games), the 2nd 2019 becomes a 1st 2019. If Zuccarello loves Dallas and stays true to his art this summer, the choice of the third round of 2020 becomes a first choice for 2020.

The agreement itself is remarkably disappointing. Zuccarello has been in the rhythm for 65 years (if he has played 82 games), is an eternal player over 50 points and is undoubtedly one of the most talented Rangers we've seen on the team. time. Add to that the fact that Zuccarello is a fan favorite, could be the human incarnation of the Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award, and was the most fun thing ever produced by an organization generally not fun, it's hard to see it go.

The return brought the knives to Gorton, who, it must be said, stood against the wall while waiting two weeks ago to sit down and negotiate with Zuccarello. I'm not saying that things would have been different if both parties had spoken all year, but if Zuccarello's request had been pushed back to three years (instead of the five that Larry Brooks said his camp was demanding), we might have seen Gorton. lean to keep the Norwegian.

Anyway, let's break down the return:

Drafts

I saw a lot of "the Rangers have nothing"Back to Zuccarello, it's an error created by Zuccarello's love and it's just wrong, everyone was mentally prepared for Zuccarello to bring back a 2nd round pick and a B level prospect. had hope that the total package would be bigger, hoping that a team would embark on an auction war once it would have lost all other options and increased the stakes – but to reality, a reasonable expectation at levels 2 and B was reasonable for a rental here.The Rangers got their 2nd place and could not get another perspective, so they took a 3rd round pick. which I will come back to in a moment.

Back to the "nothing" aspect: a second round choice is not nothing. A 3rd round choice is not nothing. The chance to capture a legitimate NHL fall when each name is removed from the board, but there are many players who practice their craft (or even dominate) in the NHL in these respective rounds. To say "oh, the Rangers fear for writing" is not part of this analysis. You want to blame the team for not having obtained high-end preliminary results in the last ten years or more? Well, but it has nothing to do with this part of the return. The Rangers will have three second-round picks this year at the time of writing this article (or two, or one, depending on Tampa's win in the Cup or Dallas by winning two rounds, or both) to help strengthen an agricultural system that still needs elite talent. It is not uncommon to find these players in the second round of the repechage, and the Rangers have more blows to him today than they did yesterday.

There is a long list of points of comparison, but it is not a senseless return. If it was somebody else than Zuccarello, it would probably cause muttering and little else.

Jeff Gorton and the "best offer"

Gorton can not simply materialize trading partners. Aside from Daren Dreger's report published a day ago that the Rangers could attack a first or a high-end prospect, just about everyone is leading the 2nd rank prospect line. and level B. If this. Do you remember a month ago, when the speech was Zuccarello could not even bring that back?

People who scream on Twitter and Facebook that Gorton's "got stuck" seem to forget that he can not create partners like magic. At this time of the year (read again: at this time of the year), trade returns are largely dictated by the market. That's why I gave Gorton so much for Michael Grabner's trade last year. He signed his contract before the market began to collapse. I will come back to Gorton's mistakes about this trade, but it is absurd to think that Gorton looked at other offers and said, "No, I'm taking this one." He took the best contract in front of him and, as the discussions with several teams had been going on for weeks, it was an exchange made after a thorough examination of the market. The idea that Gorton could "negotiate" for a better return from another team is also wrong. The action is there or not.

In a traditional environment (for example, during the repechage or a random exchange in the middle of the season), it is easier to paint with black and white lines when an agreement is reached, because there is no As dramatic chronological factors at play. Once you enter the "sale" part of the season, you are a victim of the market itself (to a certain extent). If even another team was ready to give Gorton a guaranteed first-round pick, it's hard to imagine that this is not where Zuccarello would have been.

The idea that Gorton "should have waited longer" is also wrong. The longer these talks drag on, the stronger the power of purchase. Thanks to the horrific "Rangers" chronology of "negotiation" with Zuccarello and Kevin Hayes, it was common knowledge that the team intended to move them at any cost on February 25th. If Gorton refused this offer and Dallas made an offer to buy Mark Stone, or found another rental winger, or decided to do nothing and had just moved on, you can bet that the transaction on Monday would have been worse than this one. Is it possible that another team would have panicked and abandoned more? Of course, but it's even more risky than not accepting the deal that was on the table right now. It's Gorton's job of feeling the market and acting, and he felt it was the best deal he was going to get.

The return of Ryan Dzingle (Anthony Duclair and two 2nd round picks) raised his eyebrows, especially as he dropped a few moments before Zuccarello's move. Remember: Dzingle is four years younger than Zuccarello and is probably considered someone who has other equipment since he was playing in the cesspool in Ottawa. It is also likely that Columbus does not wish to send a choice (if the NYR even wants Duclair to return) to a rival of the division. Again, it's not black and white.

The draft pick conditions

As a reminder:

2019 2nd becomes a 2019 1st if Zuccarello participates in 50% or more of the Stars playoffs and that they qualify for the finals of the Western Conference.

2020 3rd becomes a 2020 1st if Zuccarello signs in Dallas this summer

This bet is huge for Gorton, and that is probably why he accepted this deal (other offers were also proposed) (Calgary, Winnipeg and Nashville were also in Zuccarello, although we let's not know who made firm offers). If either of these conditions is met, the agreement becomes a success. If both conditions are met? It's a grand slam. If neither is met, well, Gorton will have at least one more chance to bring Zuccarello back in July.

The West is a crazy conference right now, with Dallas in first place in the Wild Cards with 65 points. They are six points behind the Blues on fire for last place in the top three central. Zuccarello will add a lot of talent to this group in Dallas, especially since he will finally be surrounded by elite talent. I would not expect Dallas to win two playoffs with a gun in the head, but that's not quite impossible. If the series started now, they would start on the road in Winnipeg, so they would have to go through Nashville or St. Louis for the condition to be met. More crazy things have happened and I'm curious to see what Zuccarello's skills bring to this training.

As for him who stays in the area: It's a double chance for Gorton. If Zuccarello signs back to Dallas – as likely or as unlikely as it may seem – the Rangers get the title of Europe 2020 champion and all is over. If Zuccarello does not stay in Dallas, he will win the market for independent placement agencies and Gorton will rehabilitate.

This case may well only represent a second and a third with Zuccarello wearing another jersey the next year. This could end up being a 1st and a 3rd, or a 1st and a 2nd, or a 1st and 3rd with Zuccarello returning to New York. It would not be crazy for Dallas to fall in love with Zuccarello in the same way that New York did, and do everything in his power to hold him back. This trade is widespread, and while this is a huge gamble, there are also benefits to it.

Where Jeff Gorton messed up

It's really the timing of the whole thing.

The most logical complaint about the deal I saw was this: "The Rangers should have kept it if it was the best deal on the table," which I do not think is a process of crazy thinking. The problem is I'm not sure it's possible after Gorton and his company messed up their schedule.

At the beginning of the year, Zuccarello was so sure that he was going to be exchanged that it had an impact on his daily life and his game on the ice. The Rangers did not negotiate, either with him or with Hayes, two weeks ago. They could not even pretend that an exchange was not the only result. National conversation leaders have repeatedly reported that the two men would be treated all year – and this was a natural assumption – but local reports, which none of the parties talked about a while ago weeks, were revealing. Gorton should not have let things drag on so long and should at least touch the base all season long. Zuccarello's request for five years is not absurd, especially since he has just completed a friendly four-year extension in a team where he has certainly left money on the table and knows it's probably his last big contract of his career. Gorton responds to the five-year request, that's fine, but if these talks were held in November, he would have had time to see if there was any ground for agreement. Gorton could always have made it clear that he was doing it, in addition to examining the commercial possibilities, and perhaps Zuccarello and his camp would have gathered in the middle to stay and force Gorton's hand.

At the very least, it may not have created the bad blood that seems to exist now. According to some media readings in the room, it seems that Zuccarello is gone for good. Two months ago, I would not have thought it was the case: to send it back and bring it back in July was still working on paper, but it does not seem so likely. It may be for cameras (Gorton and Zuccarello discussing such things would be collusion) but for now, that's the truth. I do not think Gorton could have turned around and signed him for a penny less than his original request once we got there, and that was something Gorton was not willing to do.

Thank you, Mats

Not much more to say here. I think Tom will have the bright story we will all need next week. In the meantime, here is this thread to make you feel better: