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On Saturday morning the reports of many Sources suggested the Detroit Lions have seven or eight offers on the table for a Matthew Stafford trade, all of which included a first-round pick. At the end of the day, the Lions had a much more lucrative deal: of them first-round picks, a third-round pick and Jared Goff. They jumped at the deal and the rest is history.
But what caused such a spike in compensation for Detroit? What happened between Saturday morning and around 10 p.m. ET when the deal was finally made with the Los Angeles Rams?
On Monday, a pair of columns around the NFL provided some clarity. Firstly, Pro Football Talk’s Peter King had a great history on the trade and had mind-boggling information on how Detroit decided on the Rams’ offer and details on what else was there.
King suggests Jared Goff was a staple of the trade and was even part of the Rams’ initial offering: Goff + their third-round pick (89th overall). He corroborated some other reports that the Lions view Goff not only as a bridge quarterback, but as a potential starter for the future.
As the director of college scouting for the Rams when Goff was picked in 2016, Holmes favored him inside the Rams draft hall – and still does, I’m told. Campbell, I’m also told, loved Goff not only as a bridge quarterback, but also as a Future Lions quarterback.
Then comes that bombshell: Per King, the Lions had another offer that included two first-round picks on the table. However, King does not name the team.
Which brings us to the other in-depth trade story, that of MMQB’s Albert Breer. Breer tells an interesting story of how Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay ended the night toasting each other in person, because the two were miraculously together in Los Cabos, Mexico at the time, along with a handful of other players from the NFL.
But most notable for Lions fans, Breer breaks down some exact offers the Lions had on the table. Here’s what he notes about nine different teams interested in Stafford:
- Rams’ original offering was 2022 first-round pick, Goff and additional pick
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Washington soccer team offered their first-round pick (19th overall) + a third player
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Carolina Panthers offered their first round pick (8th overall) + one pick later
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Indianapolis Colts offered pick and player packages, but never their first round pick (21st)
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San Francisco 49ers never made an official offer, but Breer thinks the 12th pick overall was not going to be on the table
- Broncos discussed a pick-swap amounting to a late first-round pick.
- Patriots and Bears both “registered”. New England offered a second-round pick and a player
- The jets also “registered”. When the Lions approached on Saturday, talks didn’t progress much
There are several things to consider here. First, if Breer’s reports are correct, it doesn’t look like the Lions really have eight teams with a first-round pick on the table. It was more likely in the neighborhood of four or five.
Second, there doesn’t seem to be an agreement between Breer and King on this mysterious offer of two first-round picks from another team. It’s possible that this team is the Chicago Bears, which would explain why the Lions turned it down. However, the Bears just received a small mention in Breer’s story, so even that seems unlikely.
Finally, from Breer’s reports, it looks like the best deal on the table that the Lions didn’t pick was the Panthers’ eighth overall pick and above. As stated in Breer’s story, the eighth overall pick is essentially as valuable as two 26th picks overall, according to Jimmy Johnson’s famous draft selection trade charts. But some argue that getting a choice today is worth more than getting choices down the line. So the addition of Goff and a third-round pick almost certainly sealed the deal for the Rams.
Obviously, with stories like this, not everything will be 100% accurate. Teams will broadcast information in an attempt to make themselves look better or, in some cases, to make other teams worse. Overall, even with all of this information available, it’s hard not to consider the deal the Lions got to be pretty darn lucrative.
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