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Matthew Stafford’s trip to NFC West makes it even harder for the 49ers to get back to the top of the division. It also exacerbates their own issues under center that have persisted since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured in Week 2 against the New York Jets. If San Francisco were lukewarm about seeking an upgrade before, it looks like the desire would intensify with another prolific passer entering the division in Sean McVay’s attack.
Garoppolo is a capable flagman. If he was downright bad, the 49ers aren’t the No.1 seed and come with an eight-minute Super Bowl win with him starting all 16 games. However, there are limits to his game that could make it difficult to keep up with some of the division’s high octane offenses. Especially with Stafford and his penchant for making deep throws adding a new weapon to an offense as creative as McVay’s.
While 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has done a good job with the running game and keeping Garoppolo’s throws in midfield and inside 20 yards, it will become easier to defend San. Francisco without the threat of a deep passing game.
Garoppolo, for example, only threw 6.5% of his attempts beyond 20 yards. Matt Ryan was 9.7% in Shanahan’s offense in 2016. A Browns quarterback trio were 15.4% in Shanahan’s offense in 2014. Meanwhile, Garoppolo threw 63% of his throws within 10 yards in 2019, and has seen that number skyrocket to 67.9 percent this season, although part of that increase likely has to do with his play on a high ankle sprain.
Stafford, on the other hand, threw 12.7% of his passes over 20 yards for the Lions last season, completed 41.8% of those throws (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson were both well under 40% on throws over 20 yards) for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. It will be a significant improvement over Goff who only completed 30% of those shots with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The point is, the 49ers’ offense has been somewhat limited, and keeping pace in the west of the NFC is only going to get more difficult. It did, no matter who lined up under center for any of their division opponents, but facing Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and now Stafford six times a season, the need for a more powerful attack is a little more urgent.
Shanahan said that over the past two seasons he believes Garoppolo hasn’t hit his cap. In 2020, he didn’t have a chance to reach it due to his injury issues. Maybe the club think they will start to be more proficient at pushing the ball onto the pitch in 2021, and they won’t look too hard for an upgrade. That’s a pretty big bet given his San Francisco background and injuries that have sidelined him for 23 games in the past three seasons.
It also stands to reason that they don’t see Stafford as a significant change for LA, and the move doesn’t cause a ripple effect big enough to influence San Francisco’s decision-making.
With Deshaun Watson’s commercial demand looming, with some other teams potentially looking to move up from veteran quarterbacks and the No.12 pick to work with, the 49ers may have several avenues for a new caller to explore. This was the case even before the Stafford deal, but an even better Rams team is making the NFC West slate a glove that San Francisco might not want to enter with Garoppolo under center.
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