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National ace Max Scherzer has been one of baseball’s most intriguing business contenders as the Nationals fell in the rankings after a scorching June, but a profession that surrounds him is also complicated for a myriad of reasons. He receives $ 35 million in 2021 and still has over $ 100 million of deferred money owed to him from 2022 to 28. The Nationals, historically, do not operate as sellers under the direction of General Manager Mike Rizzo. Scherzer enjoys full trade protection as a 10 and 5 player (10 years of MLB service, the last five with the same team). Additionally, Agent Scott Boras previously suggested that Scherzer would need some type of inducement (eg contract extension) in order to waive these rights.
However, it would seem that at least one of these major obstacles is surmountable. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter) that Scherzer is open to trade and would not invoke his 10 and 5 rights for the sole purpose of staying with the Nationals. However, Scherzer could use this comprehensive trade protection as a way to have a say in his final destination if the Nats receive offers from multiple clubs.
It’s not yet clear whether the Nationals will legitimately make Scherzer available, although a weekend sweep at the hands of a 34-64 Orioles club couldn’t have helped convince Rizzo and his staff that the Nats must function as a buyer. Rizzo said just under a week ago that he was approaching the deadline with both a ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ mindset, remaining open to whatever possibilities. the way his team played. The implication was that with a solid performance, the Nats would act as they tend to do under Rizzo: at least doing incremental upgrades in an effort to push towards the playoffs.
This did not happen, however. The Nats are 1-4 since those comments from Rizzo, including the sweep in Baltimore, and the Nationals having to slow down Stephane StrasbourgRunning the program once more only adds another negative element to the equation. Washington now finds itself eight games under .500, seven and a half leading the division and 11 in the Wild Card chase. The generally weak nature of the NL East and the heavier line of contenders in the NL West mean that the only way for an NL East club to reach the playoffs is likely a division title. FanGraphs gives the Nats a 1.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffs; PECOTA is only slightly better at 2.0%.
If the Nats do make Scherzer available, he would (obviously) be the best starting pitcher in a market that lacks impact weapons. The three-time Cy Young and eight-time All-Star winner, who turns 37 tomorrow, posted a 2.83 ERA with a brilliant 35.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 105 rounds this season. He had an amazing meltdown as the Padres and Daniel Camarena will never forget, where Scherzer allowed 12 percent of the points he gave up all season on a pitch to a relief pitcher just called up. Outside of that night, Scherzer allowed 26 runs in 101 1/3 innings of work (2.31 ERA). He’s held his opponents two points or less in 14 of his 18 starts.
It’s also worth noting that Scherzer saw his Saturday start against the Orioles scratched due to discomfort in his right triceps. The injury emerged while training at bat, not pitch, and Scherzer has already publicly stated that he plans to make his next start. He had an MRI which came back clean and (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) manager Dave Martinez said Scherzer’s bullpen session went as planned today. Assuming he feels good tomorrow, he would be in contention to start Thursday’s game for the Nationals – their last game before the Friday afternoon trade deadline.
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