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In addition to the record number of one-day deaths last week, daily deaths have averaged 49 per day over the past two weeks, and deaths are typically three to four weeks late from a confirmed case. With some more recent high case totals, the number of deaths and hospitalizations is expected to be even worse in the coming weeks. Malcolm expects the state to surpass 400,000 cases in the coming weeks.
“This is the worst place we’ve been since March and that’s what the data tells us,” Malcolm said. “With so many viruses around, things that seemed relatively safe even in August or even early October are at a much higher risk as December approaches.”
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Malcolm urged Minnesotans to work hard to control the spread by following health guidelines, and added that this was important for rural Minnesotans too, not just those in the Twin Cities.
More than a third of counties now have rates of more than 100 weekly cases per 10,000 people, she said. For context, MDH considers anything above 10 cases per 10,000 people to be a high growth rate. Malcolm added that the community spread in most counties is 10 times higher than it should be.
“This virus is present in every county, in every corner of our state,” said Malcolm, noting that the growth rates of cases are actually higher in Greater Minnesota than in the Twin Cities.
Referring to several charts from MDH, Malcolm also noted:
- The seven-day weekly average positivity rate has tripled since the middle of last month.
- At the start of November, COVID-19 patients accounted for 18% of ICU beds and 9% of non-ICU beds in hospitals. As of Monday, they represented 35% of ICU beds and 25% of non-ICU beds.
- As of Monday, 1,840 patients were in Minnesota hospitals with COVID-19 and 392 of those in intensive care units.
- Minnesota now has more cases per population than New York, Texas, Florida, and many other states that were previously hot spots.
“It’s the worst place we’ve been in since March; that’s what the data is telling us,” Malcolm said.
Walz said it was important to highlight recent data and added, “Data doesn’t give you answers, it gives you information to ask questions.” Malcolm also said it was important for everything to be put in the context of long-term trends, adding that the virus was still very new just 9 months old in Minnesota.
She noted that MDH tries to provide as much data as possible, but it takes a few weeks to get a full picture of what’s going on at any given time. With that in mind, the data still suggests the state is on a dangerous path.
Malcolm also said the virus appears to have a bit of a wave pattern where declines and short spells of good numbers are followed by slopes and spikes in numbers. It will probably continue to move forward.
The biggest thing that can sometimes be lost in data is its impact. The growing number of hospitalizations continues to put hospitals and healthcare workers in a difficult position. Malcolm said many of them are running near full capacity and hospitals and long-term care facilities struggle to keep pace with staff as many employees are infected, not by patients or residents. , but by community propagation.
Speaking specifically of long-term care facilities, Malcolm showed a graph comparing new cases of COVID-19 in Minnesota with new cases in long-term care facilities. While cases in the state have increased, cases at long-term care facilities have remained stable until recent weeks, when they have started to increase. Malcolm noted that these cases are of particular concern because of the vulnerable population in long-term care facilities.
On Monday, some health officials spoke to 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS about the impact of staffing levels on hospitals.
“We’re all sitting in a place where we have beds available but not enough staff to increase the capacity even further,” said Helen Strike, president of Regina Hospital and River Falls Hospital, who are part of it. from Allina Health. “Honestly, our staff are exhausted, they’re tired. We’ve been here for a long time.”
According to Strike, the outbreak is forcing hospitals to reconsider the number of services they can offer to non-COVID-19 patients.
“Many of us have narrowed down the types of procedures that we are able to perform right now, as many of our intensive care and medical beds contain patients with COVID. I think one of the places that has probably affected the most is our emergency rooms. Strike said, noting that the emergency room is often the first point of entry for many patients with COVID-19.
“We predict that if things get higher than they are now, we’re going to have to very seriously cut back on care for non-COVID patients,” she added.
HealthPartners also faces capacity issues.
“We see a lot of cases of COVID and it’s all over our system,” said Dr. Jerome Siy, medical director of the division of hospital medicine for HealthPartners.
He said the surge in cases extends from large urban hospitals to small community hospitals in rural areas.
“Many breathing problems are the predominant symptoms that people come up with,” Siy said. “Every day, several dozen, probably two (to) three dozen patients are admitted to the hospital. And many of them require intensive care.
He said that due to the level of care these patients require, they are being transported to hospitals with intensive care units, including the regional hospital and the Methodist hospital. The capacity has reached 90 to 95%, according to Siy.
Siy is also concerned about the increase in cases expected to follow recent Thanksgiving gatherings, particularly with other holiday events underway in the coming weeks.
5 EYEWITNESS NEWS asked Siy if he believes he has the capacity to deal with the number of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 cases expected in the coming weeks.
“Caregivers have always responded with this sense of purpose and with this attitude that we are here for our community, and so yes I mean we’re going to be able to do it,” he said. “But I think we’re all afraid that we can’t do it, and because of that we really need our whole community to respond. We’re going to have to be brave and we’re going to have to make sacrifices for ourselves and for our nation. , and if we do that, we’ll be fine. “
While the data suggests the state is in a grim situation, Malcolm noted that there is a light at the end of the tunnel and we have a vaccine to wait for next year. However, she said it was important to double our efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19 to ensure that as many people as possible can arrive at that time when a vaccine is finally available.
Moving forward
Walz said he expected to have a briefing with federal officials on vaccine distribution next week.
He applauded the federal effort on vaccine distribution and said he believed it would lead to good results when a vaccine was finally rolled out.
On that note, Walz said he had heard that the first distribution of Pfizer’s vaccine could take place in the second week of December. However, he said residents of Minnesota should recognize that March and April remain the wait for a larger-scale vaccine rollout.
As to who will receive the first doses of the vaccine, which should initially be scarce, Walz said there was still debate among federal health officials about it.
“I think most Minnesota people need to understand that in trying to get the immunization count to start getting immunity, and start having the impact, we probably have to be in the first trimester and second trimester. next year, in March and April, when a lot of this is being rolled out, ”Walz said.
He said some officials believe healthcare workers should be given the first doses, while others believe people 65 and older should.
Relief for Minnesota
Last week Walz spoke about securing economic aid for the Minnesotans and unveiled his proposal on how to proceed.
On Monday, Walz said lawmakers had had substantive talks over the weekend and were starting to make progress on an economic relief plan, but no deal has yet been reached. Walz had previously said he would convene a special session to adopt this relief package as soon as an agreement was reached.
He noted that new budget forecast figures are expected to be released on Tuesday and will likely help lawmakers finalize some decisions for the relief plan.
Malcolm and Walz thanked the Minnesotans who followed the advice over Thanksgiving weekend and avoided large gatherings as usual. For those who have had rallies, Malcolm urged those people to get tested five to seven days after the rally and to self-monitor for symptoms of COVID-19.
Regarding Christmas, Walz said he finds it hard to believe things will change enough over the next four weeks for the Minnesotans to safely assemble, but he says MDH will continue to reassess and monitor. the data.
15 new COVID-19 deaths, 5,801 new cases reported by MDH
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