Memo: Trump's second term program begins to emerge

Outlines of a second term program for President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump: "I will not let Iran possess the nuclear weapon" A rocket attack hits the green zone of Baghdad in a context of escalating tensions: Buttigieg reports on the tweets of Trump: "I'm mocking" appear 18 months before the 2020 elections.

Immigration and the economy will be at the heart of the situation, just like in its 2016 race. But trade and deregulation issues will also be present – along with a nominal proposal to replace ObamaCare with a new one. legislation still unspecified.

It is a very early stage to start preparing a platform for the second term. But supporters of the president argue that haste is justified. The nomination process of the Democrats, which includes a considerable number of candidates, already consumes a lot of media oxygen.

"We need to release these things now," said Brad Blakeman, a senior White House official, former president of President George W. Bush, and a big supporter of Trump. "Democrats occupy all this space because you have many. We must propose all our projects sooner, because the Democrats will otherwise go away. "

Trump unveiled his new immigration plan at the White House on Thursday. It is centered on the commitment to move from a green card system based primarily on family relationships to a system based primarily on education and professional skills.

The president has almost all admitted that his proposal left little chance of being promulgated by the current Congress, under the control of the Democrats. Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia's Alesandro PelosiPelosi Receives the John F. Kennedy Award for Courage Award Trump's Walk for Trla Tlaib asks Amash to Join Removal Resolution PLUS (D-Calif.) The called "dead on arrival."

But Trump hinted that his supporters could see the plan come to fruition if only they re-elect him – and put the Republicans under the control of a unified government – by 2020.

"If for some reason – perhaps political – we can not get the Democrats to approve this merit-based, high-security plan, we will have it approved immediately after the elections, when we take the House back, keep the Senate and, of course, hold the presidency, "he told the audience in the Rose Garden.

For some, the plan was less like a serious attempt at legislation, but rather a first shot in the 2020 war of messages – aimed at portraying the Democrats as obstructionists and giving the Republicans a relatively uncon- tested plan to regroup.

Its acceptability in GOP circles however has a price – it lacks details on the trickiest parts of the immigration issue.

It does not address the fate of millions of people currently living in the United States without permission, and does not provide any resolution to DACA recipients – the DACA (Deferred Action for Child Care) program. 39, the Obama era – which Trump ended.

The president's position on health care by 2020 is even more vague. But he promises something will happen.

In March, the administration sent shockwaves to Congress when the Department of Justice announced its support for the complete invalidation of the Affordable Care Act by the courts.

Trump at one point suggested that Republicans could find a solution to the current Congress, despite the fact that such a solution has proved elusive over the nine years since President Obama signed the original law.

Trump then sought to get out of entanglement by promising on Twitter that the GOP "was developing a very good health care plan" and that a "vote would be held just after the elections".

No serious proposal exists at this stage.

There are other problems for which it is easier for the administration to refer to the substance.

Trump proposed $ 2 trillion in infrastructure spending.

Democrats share a similar overall goal – and Trump had a positive meeting with Pelosi and the leader of the Senate minority Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerSchumer wants an investigation into the New York subway cars designed by the Chinese. Serious infrastructure issue Schumer asks McConnell to hold a vote on the Equality Act. MORE (D-N.Y.) On the subject at the end of last month – but negotiations may well collapse on the way money should be collected.

Another meeting between the trio is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday.

If infrastructure is not built during this congress, it is obvious that the subject needs to be added to the Trump 2020 platform.

In the same way, whether or not Congress approves of Trump's updated version of the NAFTA (US-Mexico Canada-US Agreement), Trump will insist that its protectionist trade policy is an essential element. his call for 2020.

"I think it will be the economy, immigration and trade. That's very clearly what he wants to talk about, "said Matt Mackowiak, GOP Strategist.

Dan Judy, a GOP strategist who had criticized Trump in the past, said that attention to cultural issues, including immigration and "an anti-elite agenda," including trade issues, helped the president to win.

"I think it's going to continue with all these things. "I do not think you're going to hear a lot of specific proposals" beyond "fancy speeches" on issues such as health care, Judy said.

But Judy added that this strategy based on the first base could work.

"With a quarantine probate rate, it may be his best shot. If you are Donald Trump, campaigning for more than 50% of the votes cast is unlikely to succeed, "he said.

The focus will be on the strength of the economy. The current unemployment rate of 3.6% is the lowest since 1969. GDP grew by 3.2% annualized in the first quarter of this year.

"Our country, from an economic point of view, is doing its best, probably what it has ever done," Trump told the White House last month.

This was a hyperbolic assertion – GDP growth, the most important measure, was 2.9% last year, the same as in 2015. GDP growth has reached or exceeded 4% several times in the 1990s, during President Clinton's term.

Even if the economy is the best card for Trump, the Democrats hope that it will not be enough.

"He can talk hard, but he has big problems trying to win a second term," said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. "His polls continue to stagnate and make direct confrontations [in opinion polls] he is losing to most serious Democratic opponents. "

Blakeman, Trump's ally, said it was, however, beneficial to unveil an agenda for 2020 earlier.

This considerably reduces the chances of a serious fight against any platform – "the worst thing that can happen to a president in office" – at the Republican National Convention, scheduled for Charlotte in August 2020.

Long before that, said Blakeman, one had to solve two elements of the platform.

"Immigration and health care," he said. "We have to fix them. We have no choice. "

The memo is a column of Niall Stanage, mainly devoted to the presidency of Donald Trump.