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In some respects, Liverpool's Wednesday task against Barcelona in the Champions League semi-finals is simple. All the Reds will have to do to reach a second consecutive European final is to contain Lionel Messi, the greatest footballer of all time.
In previous seasons, such a description might have been too simplistic. At the time when Xavi and Andres Iniesta were competing for midfield for Barcelona, the control of the game and the accuracy of the passes could well outweigh the matches. More recently, when Neymar and young Luis Suarez joined Messi in the sideline, the interchangeability of this three-headed monster was the main problem for opponents. Today, the support cast of the Camp Nou superstar is largely gone or aged. But what's amazing about Messi is that at age 31, he's still good enough to carry a team on the back almost at the top of the Soccer Power Index rankings, not to mention an easy championship title and a final. the Copa del Rey. . He now has the chance to bring the club a sixth title in the Champions League.
From 2010-2011 to 2013-2014, when Barcelona was either led by Pep Guardiola, or still mainly in his systems, Messi was an attacker. He played in the role of "fake nine" which he made famous and achieved incredible goals in scoring and assisting the production, while the responsibility for the ball's progression lay with him as much as for great backgrounds like Xavi and Iniesta. The team changed in 2014-15, when Luis Enrique took office, Suarez arrived as center-elite before and Xavi came out of the rotation. Messi changed to a right-wing role and became the team's main progressor, while Suarez and Neymar shared the goal charge.
Today, more and more, Messi is doing everything. He is the only driver of ball progression, and he creates an even greater percentage of his team's goals and chances than in his heyday, according to data from the testing company Opta Sports.
Barca is even more dependent on Messi
Portion of Barcelona production attributed to Lionel Messi, adjusted for playing time, 2010-2019
| Messi's share | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| season | Expected objectives + aids | Goals + Help | Progressive Passes + Tracks |
| 2010-11 | 33.7% | 36.1% | 20.3% |
| 2011-12 | 30.0 | 36.1 | 21.5 |
| 2012-13 | 32.0 | 37.4 | 19.5 |
| 2013-14 | 27.1 | 31.8 | 19.5 |
| 2014-15 | 28.0 | 31.4 | 26.2 |
| 2015-16 | 26.5 | 28.1 | 26.6 |
| 2016-17 | 29.4 | 31.4 | 23.9 |
| 2017-18 | 30.7 | 32.4 | 28.1 |
| 2018-19 | 34.7 | 41.3 | 33.6 |
The main reason why Barcelona is increasingly composed of a team made up of only one man is that the other players are not so big anymore. Luis Suarez, 32, is no longer the dynamic striker he was. Neymar, Xavi and Iniesta are gone. Sergio Busquets, 30, and Ivan Rakitic, 31, can no longer cover the field in the middle of the field as they did before. The result is a team that is less able to complete the attack with forward races or with strong aggressive pressure to provoke turnovers, as the midfielder must be more stable and defensive. At the start of the season, Barcelona played a more aggressive tactic in the midfield and was rewarded with a series of goals conceded. The manager Ernesto Valverde has since withdrawn the press, which allowed to avoid a disaster, but let Messi carry the team.
Barca's defense is not the same
The urgent rate of Barcelona and the objectives allowed by the season
| Season | Pressing rate | Authorized objectives allowed |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | 56.0% | 25.0 |
| 2011-12 | 55.4 | 25.8 |
| 2012-13 | 49.6 | 32.6 |
| 2013-14 | 52.4 | 30.5 |
| 2014-15 | 55.5 | 27.3 |
| 2015-16 | 53.1 | 33.6 |
| 2016-17 | 51.8 | 30.7 |
| 2017-18 | 47.8 | 38.5 |
| 2018-19 * | 47.2 | 42.0 |
These staffing issues appear clearly in the statistics sheet. While Barcelona was once one of the most pressing teams in the world, the Blaugrana no longer impose turnovers at the same pace. Barcelona's defensive strength has further diminished as its midfielders have lost ground – and the team's more conservative approach could only slow down the decline, not prevent it altogether.
This defensive weakness offers Liverpool its main tactical opportunity. If Jurgen Klopp's team manages to train Barcelona in a transition game and open the midfield, there will be advantageous confrontations to exploit. If Mohamed Salah or Sadio Mane can end up running in space, it is unlikely that Rakitic and Busquets will slow them down.
But such a transition game has drawbacks for Liverpool. And it's Messi. If Liverpool seeks to exploit the weaknesses of the Barcelona defense and create transition opportunities, this will give Messi a margin of maneuver. From the right, he became a central game maker, but Messi had to work in smaller spaces, often deeper in the field.
Messi receives the ball more often now in the back half of the court and the center. Liverpool normally expects to have at least two if not the three central midfielders. In a transition game, however, Messi might have more room to work and find passes for either Suarez or maybe a full back half.
The other option for Liverpool, if it seems too risky to you, would not be to speed up and play in transition, but to sit down more deeply and look for less frequent counter-attack opportunities. This would prevent Messi from finding a passage. Of course, it would not be new. Barcelona often faced opponents who sat down deeply and refused space. What has changed, however, is the Barcelona approach. Where once Barca was patiently holding the ball until he unlocks an opponent, Messi has now started firing. In the last two seasons, Messi has tried 121 outdoor shots and 108 free-throws. In the previous two seasons, 2015-16 and 2016-17, he has only attempted 83 shots off the surface and 87 free throws. Messi has increased production outside the penalty area by eight goals to 10.5 per season.
This increase in production counts, but it is not spectacular. Messi has managed to be just as dangerous a ball progressor while letting him fly more frequently. But the risk that Messi poses against a game defense, shooting long distance, is probably the one that an opponent can accept. Although Messi is more dangerous than playing football with the ball, his shot farther and farther has earned him only two goals over a long season. It's not a strategy to beat Messi – such a thing does not exist. Overall, statistics indicate that even the greatest of all times did not turn the 20-meter shot into a murderous plan of attack.
Barcelona is at this point Lionel Messi and planning the game to stop Barcelona is now as simple as knowing how to stop Messi. Which of course has never been simple. But with less expansive smugglers behind him and less explosive attackers, he has never had fewer weapons among his teammates. Liverpool can either play a riskier strategy of exploiting Barcelona's now fragile defense, or a more conservative strategy that aims to force Messi to fire from a distance. Messi could easily defeat these two strategies by finding a space in transition or on his way home with a superb remote strike. But overall, Liverpool is probably better off with the latter risk than leaving Messi free at the break.
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