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CDMX.- After the triumph of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the Presidency and at the beginning of this week, the retail dollar sells for 20.40 pesos figure 25 cents
On the international markets the peso starts trading with a depreciation of 20.6 cents trading around 20.11 pesos for a dollar, losing the pair of the main crosses of the dollar . The US dollar is strengthened in a generalized manner due to an increase in demand, since in the week relevant economic information will be published for United States who can generate speculation about the future of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve commented Gabriela Siller director of economic and financial analysis of Banco Base.
The dollar is also strengthened because this week we expect more new protectionists, because Friday, July 6, the United States will impose tariffs on 34 billion dollars of imports from China, then that this country will also implement retaliatory tariffs on US automotive products. The persistence of the protectionist rhetoric of the Trump administration will continue to generate risk aversion among market participants, so this week, an increased preference for safe haven currencies is expected, such as the US dollar
. The peso is also among the currencies that lose the most after the preliminary results of the presidential and legislative elections. The Morena party is preparing for a simple majority, both in the Senate and in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by the PAN and the third political force, the PRI.
In his first speech as winner of the electoral contest, Andrés Manuel López Obrador outlined a series of economic aspects that gave investors some peace of mind, including the fact that his government will respect private initiative, autonomy of the Bank of Mexico and investment incentives. public and private.
Market participants will focus on the details of the new president-elect's and his transition team's economic policy proposal. Their comments suggesting financial responsibility and continuity with the NAFTA trading strategy with the United States and Canada, as well as other key aspects of the economy, make them think that we We could observe a post-election recovery similar to that observed in other previous election processes as, warns an analysis of the Banorte Financial Group.
In the short term, we can expect that consumer confidence will increase, since López Obrador has won with a large advantage, which could speed up consumption. On the investment side, it is expected to decrease due to two factors: 1) investment rose in the first half due to higher public spending, an effect that will no longer occur in the second half and 2) l & # 39; Uncertainty linked to possible changes in economic policy could reduce investments in Mexico until the new administration, says Gabriela Siller.
However, it is expected that the factors that continue to move the peso in the short term remain: 1) news related to protectionism in the United States, 2) speculation on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, 3) a contagious effect of other currencies of emerging economies, 4) oil prices and 5) risk aversion generated at the international level, concluded the specialist Banco Base.
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