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Carlos Urzúa, appointed Financial Secretary of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's Administration (AMLO), gave his macroeconomic forecast for the following year or, among those Here, highlights an inflation of 5 percent higher than the Bank of Mexico's goal and the current forecast of the unit that will lead in December.
The next Finance Minister anticipated in an interview with Carlos Loret de Mola, that overall inflation would close 2019 in a range of 4.0 to 5.0 percent a higher figure at the 3 percent annual rate estimated in the Ministry of Finance 2019 pre-criteria delivered last March.
The forecast is also higher than that established in the monthly survey of the Bank of Mexico, 3.65% and FocusEconomics survey of more than 40 economists, 3.6%.
In the last quarterly report the Bank of Mexico predicted that annual general inflation would continue its downward trend approaching the target of three percent, plus or minus one point of variability, during the year; while in 2019 the goal would be around.
The central bank warned that these forecasts consider orderly exchange rate behavior, the absence of labor market pressures and that non-core inflation should fall to the expected rate for the rest of the 2018.
Growth upward in the first year
With regard to the economic growth forecast for the country in the first year of the AMLO government, Urzúa said that its forecasts are aligned with those of the market placing it at 2.5% by 2019 This figure is in line with the range established in the Pre-Criteria of Treasury between 2.5 and 3.5 %, and slightly higher than the 2.3% forecast in the Banco de México and FocusEconomics surveys. [19659008] The following secretary reiterated that AMLO's proposal to increase the pension for the elderly would cost 35 billion pesos and the scholarship for young people who did not no employment or do not study The promotion of social spending will almost certainly lead to an increase in economic growth driven by short-term consumption although some analysts regard their spending proposals as a recipe for exacerbating the fiscal deficit and a threat to the resilience of the economy, "said Christopher Thomas, Economist of FocusEconomics for Mexico
The stars are aligned for the peso "
The exchange rate, Urzúa noted that the markets had already discounted the success of López Obrador for two or three months.
" We were expecting a bullfight in avoir of the peso and it has happened. We still believe that the trading situation could be better, "he said." If we can negotiate NAFTA before the end of the year I I am sure that we will be able to reach the age of 18, which would be extraordinary. "
He added that among the most important emerging countries Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, among others the financial situation is not the same. is not very good, no more than in some developed countries like Italy.
"In the eyes of the world, we are almost an" oasis. "Now a lot of things line up, the stars aligned", was -he says.
The Treasury candidate expects that the dollar reaches the average in 2019 at a price of 19 pesos an estimate slightly higher than that expected by FocusEconomics, 18.67 pesos, and that of Precriterios de Hacienda, 18.40 pesos. However, he is more optimistic than Banxico's investigation, which predicts it to 19.38 pesos
For the price of oil, Urzúa estimates that the Mexican mix is about 70 dollars a barrel, or $ 20 more than predicted Hacienda Precriterios 2019.
In an interview, Alfredo Coutiño, Latin American director of Moody's Analytics, explains that Urzua is an economist with very good credentials and a Ph.D. A very good American university. "At the academy, he is an excellent economist, even with international recognition."
The price of gasoline will only increase in terms of inflation
Urzúa said that there can be sudden changes in the prices of l & 39; ; gasoline. we think to raise the price every year because of inflation, in real terms, it will not increase, but in nominal terms, because of inflation ".
"At this moment the price of gasoline is controlled, it does not seem, but yes, because the Federal Government is lowering or increasing the Special Tax on Production and Services", " it's the same as we would, "he said.
The candidate for the post of finance secretary added that oil contracts granted under an energy reform would remain in the new government in case a review would not reveal any irregularities.
"If that sounds good, go ahead, it's a contract we have to respect," he said.
According to information from Notimex
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