Is it feasible to build two refineries as proposed by AMLO?

One of the energy sector projects of the virtual president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is building two refineries that, according to his project, aim to reduce US imports of fuels And so on.

However, according to Wood Mackenzie specialists consulted by the newspaper Reform these measures could lead to an increase in imports of crude oil to feed this industry because domestic production could not feed the fuel production centers.

It must be remembered that crude oil is divided into, light, intermediate and heavy; each of them offers different percentages of derivatives, ranging from petrol to plastics. In fact, is the light crude oil that offers the greatest amount of gasoline when it is refined.

In the case of Mexico, 3 types of crude oil are extracted: Mayan (heavy crude), which offers about 16% of species; the isthmus (light crude), which offers 26% gasoline in its refining and, the Mexican blend (70% isthmus and 30% maya) which offers 23% gasoline in his refining.

Ok, they will be built refineries, but with what raw will they work?

As can be seen, all the oil extracted is not optimal for producing gasoline, which is why according to Wood Mackenzie analysts , the construction of the two refineries would lead to a reduction in imports of by-products, in the case of gasoline, would also imply an increase in imports of light crude to supply refining centers as this would also reduce exports of Mexican blends, which are currently the activity The strongest of Pemex

According to the consultant's calculations, by 2023, Mexico will have to import 250,000 barrels of crude oil per year. to supply refineries, since predicts that the annual production of Mexican crude oil will decrease to 1.5 million barrels per day

It is estimated that these new refineries would produce 300 000 barrels by fuel day and would require a Mexican blend ; the problem is that by 2023, the extraction will be mainly Maya crude oil (of which we have more reserves), which offers low percentages of gasoline, so that it Light crude oil will have to be imported to supply the new refining centers.

In addition, the use of Maya crude oil for new refineries would reduce oil exports by 50% affecting the revenues of the company. State and federal government for this activity, more profitable than refining. (Via: Pemex)

Finally, it is unlikely that the refineries will be finished in 3 years, since the average construction of a refinery is 6 years, so if the project is approved, it will be inaugurated until 39 at the end of six years. 2024-2030. Similarly, it is not known whether these projects will be carried out with public funds or with private investments, if the second case persists, who is interested in doing so?

As can be seen, trading is not a zero sum game, that is, what you earn does not mean taking something to someone else. one, in this case, is very clear: we would stop importing gas, but we would import crude; Self-sufficiency is highly unlikely in all sectors of the economy.