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Fitch Ratings maintained the ratings of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex); However, he has reduced the international credit outlook from stable to negative, arguing that uncertainty could arise from potential changes in the oil company's strategy during the next administration, while warning that the deterioration of credit parameters after the taxes affect the projections.
In this regard, Rocío Nahle, the next head of the secretariat for energy, said that Fitch's argument that Pemex's business strategy was uncertain was "nonsense", since the elected president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, announced that will invest in 2019 about 70 billion additional pesos in the budget of the oil company to put an end to the fall of the production.
For his part, Pedro Joaquín Coldwell, Secretary of Energy, explained that when the rating outlook is lowered, the financing costs are affected because they become more expensive.
Fitch confirmed the investment grade ratings of short-term ratings in "F1 + (mex)" and domestic debt securities in "AAA (mex)" and has ratified investment grade and long-term foreign currency ratings in "BBB +". , in local currency in "AAA (mex)", but indicated that the negative outlook also reflects the impact of large resource transfers to the Mexican government.
The ratings, on the other hand, are based on Pemex's strong relationship with the federal government and its implicit support for the company's strategic importance to Mexico's energy security, as the country depends primarily on it. supply of gasoline and diesel.
The rating agency also highlighted the efforts and measures implemented over the last two years to improve the free flow of money, in line with the strategy announced by Pemex in September on reducing the rate Debt and improvement of the financial balance of a deficit of 147 billion pesos in 2015 to an estimated deficit of 49 billion pesos by the end of 2018.
Nahle did not agree with the uncertainty and added that the next administration had announced the injection of an additional 25 billion pesos in 2019 for the rehabilitation of the six Pemex refineries and the construction of a new refinery of about 8 billion dollars.
"So, I do not understand this qualifier which says that there is uncertainty when the next government announces that it will invest to produce more oil, in order to have better infrastructure to refine and that even its national refining system is developing, "he said. .
For his part, Joaquín Coldwell mentioned Andrés Manuel López Obrador's plan to eliminate crude oil exports, which could affect Pemex's financial equilibrium, since a significant part of its debt and the service it pays are in dollars.
Banco Base's chief analytics officer, Gabriela Siller, said "the change in perspective of Pemex's credit rating is jeopardizing the prospect of Mexico's credit rating."
For its part, Juan Musi, CEO of Strategies CIBanco, said in an interview with MILENIO Television that Fitch's action is worrisome and that it's a first warning, to the extent that it could result in a downgrade, and not Pemex. from the country.
From your point of view, a second test for the next administration will be the New Mexico International Airport consultation and the budget for the following year.
Last Thursday, Moody's had announced that the new government's proposal to stop exporting oil would entail significant risks for Pemex's finances and for Mexico's credit quality.
The steps
The exchange rate reached on the interbank market a maximum of 19,317 pesos per dollar, the highest level since September 11, while it was sold at 19.70 pesos in the counters of banks.
Banco Base said the change in Pemex's outlook contributed to the depreciation of the peso at the end of the week.
Hacienda denies the increase in gasoline
The Ministry of Finance announced that from 20 to 29 October the tax incentives for the special production and services tax (IEPS) on fuel would be reduced; However, he denied that this translates into higher prices.
He said that the reduction of the IEPS stimulus amount is in line with the observed decline in international reference prices during the week ended Friday, 19 October.
The stimulation of Magna gasoline through the IEPS will be reduced from 46.75% during the week of October 13 to 19.9% to 28.93% from 20th to 29th. October, from 2.146 to 1.328 pesos per liter. In the case of higher gasoline, the stimulus will increase from 29.28 to 8.48%, which means it will increase from 1,136 pesos to 0.329 cents per liter, the agency said.
For diesel, the fiscal stimulus of 56.9% last week; from next Saturday, October 20, it will be 47.2%, which means a drop of 0.48 cents per liter of fuel.
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