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According to the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment of the University of Washington, over the next two decades, the average in the country will only increase by 2.2 years, while it will be 10.5 years in the Arab country. Statistics stagnate because the Republic is experiencing an "epidemic of homicides, diabetes and chronic kidney failure," they said.
Mexico City, 27 October 2018. If the current health trend continues, life expectancy in Mexico could increase over the next two decades, averaging only 2.2 years, a smaller proportion than countries at war like Syria. , where an average increase of 10.5 years is expected.
According to a study from the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment of the University of Washington, in 2016, the average life expectancy of Mexicans was 76.1 years and should reach 78.3 years in 2040.
In Latin American countries, such as Colombia, life expectancy is expected to increase 2.8 years, from 78.2 to 81 years, while in Chile, an increase of 2 years is estimated at 80 years.
In the case of Syria, life expectancy was 68.2 years and will be 22 years to 78.6 years, according to the study. Prognosis of life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and specific mortality for 250 causes of death: baseline and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.
In the most positive scenario, life expectancy in Mexico could increase to 5.9 years, and in the most negative, it could decrease to 0.8 years, says the analysis.
"You have a strong epidemic of diabetes, chronic kidney failure and homicides that will slow you down (growth) in your life expectancy and even bring it down, as it has already happened. .
"Mexico has the problem that its life expectancy has ceased to be disrupted by the epidemic of homicides, diabetes and chronic kidney failure; it is not going as fast as the other countries, "said Rafael Lozano, a Mexican researcher at the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment.
In an interview, the expert explained that the life expectancy in Syria was well below that of Syria and that the nations that were so are those who go higher. "Those who were above are the ones who work the hardest to climb."
In 2016, the leading causes of premature death in Mexico were ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, interpersonal violence, vascular injury, congenital malformations, lower respiratory tract infections, stroke, and complications. neonatal preterm birth and cirrhosis due to hepatitis C.
By 2040, the leading causes should be diabetes, chronic kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, cirrhosis due to hepatitis C, interpersonal violence, Alzheimer's disease, stroke, cirrhosis due to alcohol consumption, road trauma and congenital malformations.
However, according to the study published in The lancet, there is "great potential to change the downward trajectory of health" by tackling key risk factors, education and per capita income.
"The future of global health is not pre-established and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories, but if we see significant progress or significant stagnation, it depends on how well the health systems treat or badly the key factors of health, "said Dr. Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute of Metrics and Health. lead author of the study.
According to Foreman, in the "worst" scenario, life expectancy decreases in nearly half of the next generation countries.
Specifically, 87 countries will experience a decrease and 57 an increase of at least a year. By contrast, in the "best" scenario, 158 countries will gain life expectancy of at least five years, while 46 countries will earn 10 years or more.
Text: Natalia Vitela / Agencia Reforma / Photo: EFE – Archivo El Sur
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