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The new energy program of the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration presents credit risks for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), given its approach of self-sufficiency, warned Moody & # 39; s.
The Gasoline and Diesel Price Control Plan, The Construction or Improvement of Refineries and the Postponement of Oil and Gas Auctions Add Uncertainty to Pemex's Ability to Benefit from Prices favorable oil and strong appetite of foreign investors for investment, said the rating agency in a report.
"Pemex's operations and credit quality have been improving slowly since 2016, after making significant adjustments to its operating expenses and capital investments," said Nymia Almeida, Vice President from Moody's. Pemex builds new refineries, assuming the parastatal industry
The government of Lopez Obradorar plans to build two new refineries with a production capacity of 300,000 barrels per day or a refinery twice as large for a total of $ 6,000 million. However, cost overruns are common and new refineries may end up costing many times the amount originally planned.
"If refining plans are executed, which has not yet been confirmed, Pemex's credit indicators would be weakened. Financing an investment of this type with debt, while diverting resources. that the company must devote mainly to the production of oil and gas, "says Almeida
However, crude oil is still under pressure to increase investment in exploration and production, because its production of oil and gas Gas has declined since 2004. Higher oil prices have supported revenues, but the utility of its oil Exploration and production, after taking into account financing costs, continue below the equivalence point level Uilibrio
Another risk to the oil company's finances is whether the AMLO government will control fuel prices. The weakening of the peso has increased fuel production.
The state's productive enterprise pays crude oil in US dollars, whether it produces it or that it imports it. Currently, taxes represent about 30% of the price of fuel on the shipping pumps.
"The new administration could adjust taxes to maintain price stability, but adjust fuel prices according to the causes of inflation uncertainty on the generation of money for Pemex" .. [19659002] The third risk is installed in foreign associations and if Pemex will have the ability to continue to make these associations.
To March 2018, PEMEX with a Baa3 / Aa3 rating. mx stable, has a debt of more than $ 106,000 million and pension liabilities of $ 64,000 million. It is the largest debtor of all the qualified oil companies in the world.
Here is the complete note: AMLO will receive the most indebted oil company in the world
Moreover, it has a high tax burden of about 70% of EBITDA, which limits its investment capacity.
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