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More inflation and a more depreciated peso are conditions anticipated by analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) for 2018 and 2019.
In the investigation that the central bank raises, The consensus of analysts has raised its forecast indicators because they view inflation and monetary policy as factors that could hinder the growth of the Mexican economy.
The most important change was the exchange rate. The consensus rose from 18.60 to 19.11 pesos to 19.50 pesos against 18.92 for the dollar in 2018. Moreover, the forecasts of the general inflation of 2018 went from and in the case of next year they placed it at 3.56% compared to the 3.55% level expressed in the previous survey.
In addition, specialists anticipated that in June and July consumer prices will rise more than expected he carries his estimates of 0.21% to 0.29% and 0.29% respectively. % to 0.32%.
However, the governance factor continues to weigh as a constraint on economic activity, including political uncertainty and insecurity issues.
For this reason, they maintained their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate of 2019 at 2.30% and improved their forecasts for 2018 from 2.25% to 2.30%.
However, they corrected this year's GDP upwards, reducing from 720 thousand to 716 thousand the number of jobs that could be created in 2018.
Corruption and debt. Specialists are increasingly concerned about corruption, impunity and the absence of the rule of law.
Although the question of public finances was no longer identified as an obstacle to the economy, it went from 2.05% to 2.10%. proportion of GDP the economic deficit for 2019; for this year they have not changed their expectation of 2% of the size of the economy.
One does not perceive greater debt because for the indicator that reflects the broader version of the debt, ie the public sector financial needs , maintained the forecast of 2.50% of GDP for both 2018 and 2019.
The survey was collected by the Bank of Mexico among 34 economic analysis and national private sector consulting groups and foreigner before the elections of July 1: Answers were received between June 22 and June 28.
The consultation reflected a high level of uncertainty as 53% of respondents said they were not sure that the time is right for investment, while a month ago the 58% [19659002] In the perception of the economic environment, 58% responded that the business climate would remain the same over the next six months, and only 16% predicted that it would improve
. or that the economy is no better compared to the situation that prevailed a year ago.
In this environment, experts consulted by Banxico have reduced the estimate of foreign direct investment (FDI).
By the end of the year it has risen from $ 27,450 million to $ 26,650 million, and by 2019 they expect that they can capture 27 thousand or more. millions of dollars, compared to 28 thousand 294 million dollars considered a month ago.
In the case of the US economy, improved forecasts for 2018 from 2.75% to 2.80%; however, they left in 2.40% the corresponding to 2019.
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