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Private analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) have revised upward the growth forecasts of the Mexican economy for 2018, to 2.29% against 2.26%, its second rise online .
On forecasts of specialists in private sector economics "from June of this year, for 2019 they lowered its estimates to 2.24% of the previous 2.34%, according to the average of the forecasts.
On inflation , they increased their estimate for 4.06% against 3.92% last May, after three months down, and in 2019 slightly up to 3.65% against 3.63% after two months of decline. 19659002] the exchange rate, they increased their forecast for the year-end 2018 to 19.62 pesos to the dollar compared to the previous estimate of 19.02 pesos to the dollar, while for the & estimation de; following year, they also increased to 19.38 pesos against 18.72 pesos for a dollar
. Analysts with They felt that factors that could impede Mexico's economic growth over the next six months are, in order of importance: internal political uncertainty (19% of responses) and the foreign trade policy (17% of responses)
Also, public insecurity problems (14% of responses); lack of rule of law (8.0% of responses); impunity (5.0% of responses); and the uncertainty of trade (5% of responses).
The central institute adds that for the bank financing rates, it is noted that for the third quarter of 2018, most of the specialists consulted anticipate an interbank financing rate equal to
For the fourth quarter of 2018, the answers are divided equally among analysts who consider that the interbank financing rate will be above or at the same level as the objective in effect at the time of the survey. For the first quarter of 2019, the percentage of specialists who believe that the interbank financing rate will be above the current target is equal to the proportion of analysts who think that the funding rate will be located
From the second quarter of 2019, the controlling fraction corresponds to those who think that the rate will be lower than With regard to the level of the interest rate of Cete at 28 days, the forecasts for the closing of 2018 are passed to 7.79% in June versus 7.50% in the May survey, and by the end of 2019 also increased to 7.16% from the previous 6.88%.
Analysts consulted by Banxico raised their expectations in June regarding the number of insured workers at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) for the 2018 closure to 725,000 places from 721,000 places estimated the previous month , although in 2019 they rose from 682,000 to 694,000.
According to the central bank survey, expectations of the national unemployment rate for the year-end 2018 they decreased by 3, 39% in May to 3.36% in June, but maintained at 3.50% in 2019.
With respect to US gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts , analysts have their expectations for 2018 compared with the previous survey, from 2.72 to 2.77%, and for the following year, they rose from 2.45 to 2.43%.
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