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Comprehensive Panorama
CITY OF MEXICO (El Universal) .- More inflation and a more depreciated peso is what analysts expect from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
In the survey that the Central Bank raises, corresponding to June, the consensus of analysts raised its projections for inflation and the exchange rate for this year and next year. The above because they see the price index and monetary policy as factors that could hinder the growth of the Mexican economy.
The most important change has been in the exchange rate. The consensus placed at 19.50, 18.92 pesos per dollar, the price for 2018; for 2019, it rose from 18.60 to 19.11 pesos
As a result, the forecast for the overall inflation of 2018 rose from 3.94% to 4% and from 2016 3.56% for the year 2019, compared with 3.55% for the previous survey. , the governance factor continues to weigh as a constraint on economic activity, including political uncertainty and insecurity issues. That's why they have maintained their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate of 2019 at 2.30% and have improved their forecast this year from 2.25% to 2.30%.
Analysts considered the following factors that could hinder Mexico's economic growth in the next six months, in order of importance: internal political uncertainty (19% of responses) and foreign trade policy (17% some answers).
Insecurity
In addition, problems of public insecurity (14% of responses); lack of rule of law (8.0%); impunity (5.0%) and currency uncertainty (5.0%)
Analysts consulted by Banxico raised their expectations in June regarding the number of insured workers in the IMSS by the end of 2018 to 725 thousand places against 721 thousand estimated the previous month, although by 2019, they went from 682 thousand to 694 thousand.
The expectations of the national unemployment rate for the closing of 2018 fell by 3, 39% in May to 3.36% in June, but for In 2019, they maintained it at 3.50%.
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